I have repeatedly mentioned the phrase “hyper fast trading” in the last few days. I wrote a few pieces about it in the past with the most notable post being this one:
http://epiphanytrading.blogspot.com/2010/02/mon-feb-8-hyper-fast-trading-and.html
This is definitely a market for that type of trading. Ostensibly, I do what it is I normally do but I do it much faster and love when news directly impacts whatever it is I am doing. After re-reading that piece, I can only add but two things. First, it is of utmost importance to realize the market type and trading environment one is working amidst. No matter your style of trading, when prices are whipping around the way they have, there are of course perilous dangers if doing asinine things like accumulating positions, being stubborn, and not cutting down on trade size. Furthermore, since I am in these for such a brief time and they happen so fast, I am terrified of having anyone join me because of the things I just said…when I am wrong, I exit expeditiously…when right, I do my best to take what I can get. It is, happily however, a major opportunity if one views it that way because the excessive movement allows one to earn very quick yet decent profits- simply by keeping one’s eyes, ears, and most importantly- one’s mind open.. The other thing I can add is to simply describe what it is I am doing a bit more and why I am doing it. With that in mind, here are the trades I did one Wednesday afternoon from 2PM to 3:30PM when the market was whipping around…every single one- with the trade and reason I did them...note the relatively low trade size and the quick movements in adapting to the conditions:
1)
14:01:12 WLT SLD SHRT 100 115.01 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY D
14:01:12 WLT SLD SHRT 300 115 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY X
14:02:36 WLT BOT 200 114.7 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY J
14:03:23 WLT BOT 100 114.44 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY X
14:04:17 WLT BOT 100 114.6 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY A
The stock was in a tight range and the market began caving amid a negative story about Japan. I shorted 115 and was cued up to exit 115.10 if 115 refreshed.
2)
14:06:57 MEE BOT 100 60.57 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:07:10 MEE SLD 100 60.48 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
MEE had been holding near unchanged and I bought it small to see if it’d pop right back through unchanged in a test of market strength. The low had been 60.50. It breached 60.50 and I sold immediately.
3)
14:12:24 CCJ SLD SHRT 100 29.02 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY A
14:13:14 CCJ SLD SHRT 400 29.01 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY A
14:13:34 CCJ BOT 200 28.95 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:13:34 CCJ BOT 100 28.95 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:14:33 CCJ BOT 200 29.03 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY A
The market was in near freefall. Uranium stocks were breaching lows so I shorted CCJ. It took out 29 with 28.93 refreshing. I took some off at 28.95. I didn’t think it’d get back above 29. When it did, I covered the rest.
4)
14:18:31 AAPL SLD SHRT 200 328.06 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY X
14:19:26 AAPL BOT 10 327.03 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:19:26 AAPL BOT 16 327.07 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:19:26 AAPL BOT 74 327.08 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:21:31 AAPL BOT 100 327.4 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
This was a ‘technical’ trade. The market was trending toward a low and AAPL was rolling over. I shorted it through the low of the day. At the first pause (327), I took the first part off. It got down to the mid 326’s…there was then a rumor which vaporized all offers. When it poked above 327, I was cued up to cover at 327.50…and in giving up 50 cents, I covered 327.40 (and it was up 50 more cents less than a minute later).
5)
14:34:34 WLL BOT 100 64.19 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:34:34 WLL BOT 100 64.19 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:34:34 WLL BOT 100 64.19 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY X
14:36:13 WLL SLD 100 64.52 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:36:13 WLL SLD 100 64.52 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:36:42 WLL SLD 100 64.46 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
The stock was mentioned on a mid-day update by Jim Cramer as something that he was going to discuss on his show that night with the CEO to be on. It had rallied a bit already but the market was in a rally phase on a positive nuclear rumor. It got to 64.60 or so. It got stuck there so I went to sell some of it at 64.50 and got filled 64.52. When it ticked below there, I sold the rest.
6)
14:41:41 AAPL SLD SHRT 1 332.53 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:41:41 AAPL SLD SHRT 100 332.51 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:41:41 AAPL SLD SHRT 99 332.5 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:42:03 AAPL BOT 100 332.33 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY X
14:42:50 AAPL BOT 100 331.9 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY A
AAPL had run up a couple of points fairly fast. There was a sell program with a quick 15 point downtick in the Dow. I figured AAPL would catch up. There was a refreshing offer at 332.60 so if wrong, I’d have exited there.
7)
14:45:56 AAPL SLD SHRT 7 332.72 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:45:56 AAPL SLD SHRT 100 332.71 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:45:56 AAPL SLD SHRT 13 332.7 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY A
14:45:57 AAPL SLD SHRT 80 332.7 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY A
14:46:16 AAPL BOT 100 332.41 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:46:22 AAPL BOT 100 332 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
The stock ran up upon a report that people would be dispersed back to the plants in Japan. As the reporter on CNBC noted this, he then said “but it could be a awhile before it happens.” I shorted it as soon as I heard the word “but.”
8)
14:49:15 AAPL SLD SHRT 100 333.34 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:49:15 AAPL SLD SHRT 100 333.34 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:49:38 AAPL BOT 98 332.8 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY A
14:49:38 AAPL BOT 2 332.8 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY A
14:50:04 AAPL BOT 100 332.7 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY A
See trade 6 (except it was 10 Dow points)
9)
14:52:09 AAPL SLD SHRT 100 333.62 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:52:09 AAPL SLD SHRT 100 333.62 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:52:27 AAPL BOT 100 333.15 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:52:33 AAPL BOT 70 332.98 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
14:52:33 AAPL BOT 30 332.99 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
See trade 6
10)
15:02:28 AAPL SLD SHRT 13 333.9 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY A
15:02:28 AAPL SLD SHRT 88 333.9 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY A
15:02:59 AAPL BOT 100 333.5 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY A
15:02:59 AAPL BOT 1 333.5 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY A
See trade 6 (except it was about 10 Dow points)
11)
15:12:35 AAPL SLD SHRT 100 333.8 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
15:12:35 AAPL SLD SHRT 100 333.8 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
15:12:54 AAPL BOT 100 333.78 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY X
15:13:18 AAPL BOT 2 333.73 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
15:13:18 AAPL BOT 98 333.73 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY R
Litmus test to see how strong the market was…it immediately fell 30 cents and then came back up…when 333.70 bid held and refreshed, I took the first piece off. When 75 bid came in and held, I took the other part off.
12)
15:28:30 AAPL BOT 100 332.31 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY X
15:29:21 AAPL SLD 100 332.2 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY A
The market leveled out with 332.10 refreshing along with 332.30, I bought it as soon as 30 left. When it failed to go in chopping around, I sold it. I then also realized amid the choppiness that enough was enough and I stopped doing this. I cut down on my size dramatically so I could control my risk in giving myself leeway if wrong and came away going on $1,000 richer overall in the 1 ½ hour time period. I didn’t trade 1,000-2,000 shares of these things as I routinely do in trying to make $10,000 because if wrong just once, I could have wiped everything out particularly on a headline and in illiquid conditions at that. The day of the flash crash, had I been wrong on say an average 1500 shares, I could have lost upwards of $50,000. Thus, do not chase, do not over trade, exit rapidly, and do not build positions. And hopefully I made my point: this is a trader’s market if one pays attention, cuts down on size, and is super fast in executing one’s trades.
Markets were very strong overnight with Hong Kong up 1.6% and Tokyo up 1.8%. In Europe, Frankfurt is surging 2.8%, London 2.2%, and Paris 2.4%. Strong strong gains. Gold has breached the $1,500 level in trading up 2/3%, oil is up over 1%, and the dollar is stronger against the yen but getting pounded versus the euro. The risk-on trade is in full effect. The earnings overnight were terrific (excepting IBM) and it’s reignited the run. The only economic report of note today is standing home re-sales at 10AM (2.5%). The market should hold all else equal today with a lot of action. The focus will be on the dozens of earnings plays, the techs, the casinos, the Chinese ADR’s, and any relative weakness play (particularly shortly after the 9:30AM open).
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
AAPL- closed near a high
NFLX- closed near a high
BIDU- closed near a high
DANG- closed near a high
ARCO- closed near a high
CLF- closed near a high
WLT- closed near a high
TCK- closed near a high
X- closed near a high
VHC- closed near a high
POT- closed near a high
BBBB- closed near a high after announcing it had retained Barclays Capital in response to unsolicited offers
RVBD- decent earnings
INTC- good earnings
WYNN- good earnings
VMW- great earnings
YHOO- decent earnings
JNPR- decent earnings
LLTC- decent earnings
ALB- good earnings
XG- closed near a high after announcing a new high grade gold-silver discovery at Cerro Moro
GROW- closed near a high
TKR- closed near a high
BKS- closed near a high
CROX- closed near a high
CYOU- closed near a high
ELN- decent earnings
KCG- decent earnings
EMC- decent earnings
PII- good earnings
UTX- decent earnings
STJ- decent earnings
T- decent earnings
APH- decent earnings
PLD- decent earnings
AMB- decent earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
GOOG- closed near its low
CRU- closed near a low after receiving a downgrade from Walls Fargo
RIMM- closed near a low
IBM- poor earnings
CREE- bad earnings
CSX- poor earnings
SYK- poor earnings
SHZ- closed near a low after receiving a going concern qualification
TRGL- closed near a low
TRGP- share offering
URI- poor earnings
ECA- poor earnings
TXT- poor earnings
WFC- poor earnings
LUFK- poor earnings
Earnings:
WED APR 20 BEFORE
ABT AMB AMR
APH DAL DGX
ECA ELN EMC
ETN FCX HBAN
KCG LUFK MO
NDAQ PII PLD
STJ T TIN
TXT UNP USG
UTX WFC
WED APR 20 AFTER
AAPL ALGN AMGN
AXP BAS BSX
CAKE CMG CPHD
ESV ETFC EW
FFIV GDI KMP
LRCX MAR NE
NFX QCOM SLM
TCO TEX TSCO
WDC YUM
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
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