I spent several hours- not an eternity- but about four hours making my picks for this year's NCAA basketball tournament. Mind you, I barely watched any basketball this season as I've been busy so it was pure empirical research. But I'm pretty good at statistical analysis. I placed as high as 2nd in one of the biggest pools in the country as recently as three years ago. Um, yeah, not so much this year. It's been my worst year ever for the tourney. Now, in the same big pool as me is my brother-in-law's beloved dog, Nessa. 'The Ness' is a beautiful and intelligent animal. But last I looked, she is not a basketball analyst. She made her picks by eating kibble on the brackets. And she's 16th out of about 500 entrants. Nice. The point that is hammered home to me from all of this is just how fruitless it often is to prognosticate what will happen -in this day and age- over an intermediate period of time (say 3 months) with much information out there regarding not necessarily specific stocks (although that's hard enough) but specifically the broader market. Just so much can happen. So, as we day traders trade with an immediate-term horizon, focus on that- the immediate-term. Don't confuse what you think may happen three years or three months or three weeks from now (the duration of the aforementioned tournament) with the goal of trying to figure out what'll happen in the next three minutes.
Markets in Asia closed higher overnight with Tokyo rising sharply to the tune of 4.3% after being closed yesterday with Hong Kong up 0.7%. In Europe, the trend is slightly negative with Frankfurt down 0.3% and London off 0.1%. All of the external markets are quiet with oil down fractionally and gold and the dollar quiet. Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher has been on the wires this morning with some rather hawkish comments hinting that he may vote to curtail QE2 before June because he feels the economy is moving along due to its own traction at this point. The Richmond Fed Index is due out at 10AM along with FHFA Home Prices (-2.0%). Things are quit as they’ve been in awhile. Stock movement will likely be more muted than it has been. The focus will likely be on tech in the news (NFLX), the rails on CP’s warning, and the limited earnings plays (WAG).
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
PRAN- closed near a high on a published study on PBT2 in Alzheimer’s Disease
LEAP- closed near a high amid speculation it may be in play in the telecom sector
NEWN- closed near a high after posting good earnings
EVR- closed near a high upon advising a slew of deals
CVX- closed near a high
AIG- closed near a high
AAPL- closed near a high
WYNN- closed near a high
BMY- positive phase III Ipilimumab clinical trial results
DG- decent earnings
NFLX- upgraded by Credit Suisse
DG- decent earnings
BJ- private equity firm Leonard Green has reached a confidentiality agreement with BJ to take the company private
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
DEER- closed near a low amid rumors of a fraudulent land deal
SBAC- closed near a low after noting it said it had separate antenna space leases with AT&T and T-Mobile
FFIV- closed near a low
IVR- share offering
JRCC- share offering
AGNC- share offering
WAG- poor earnings
CMC- poor earnings
Earnings:
TUES MAR 22 BEFORE
CCL CMC DG
JEF NEOG WAG
TUES MAR 22 AFTER
ADBE CTAS DFS
DGW IOC JBL
PRMW SONC
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
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