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Wednesday, September 1, 2010

WED. SEP. 1- My Name Is Earl

The only two dates applicable to this piece-at least applicable to the NYSE website- are August 9, 1976 and September 27, 1985. Anyone know (r remember) those dates off-hand? The are the dates with which two names were spoken by the populace of the Northeast region of the country- Belle and Gloria. Hurricane Belle caused over $100 million in damage when it passed from eastern North Carolina through New England. Hurricane Gloria was even more powerful when it made landfall on western Long Island before rocketing up to Maine in causing $900 million in damage. Yet, the NYSE only closed early (or not at all in Gloria’s case) twice in its history (again, according to the NYSE.Com website)! I bring this up because of a name that will be in the news a lot in coming days- Earl. Hurricane Earl is on a perilous path which would take it just east of Cape Cod at this time but a slow moving cold front would allow the storm to make a much more dangerous trajectory for residents of coastal towns from North Carolina up to the eastern shore of Canada. For trading, this could have an impact from nothing to the government delaying the jobs report on Friday to even lower volumes to a complete shutdown of the exchange. This is very important because it’ll make the action that much more prescient today and tomorrow as we are potentially looking at a dearth of data and participants to a possible albeit highly unlikely four-day closure for the markets. Furthermore, many traders are not paying attention to the storm track and may well be caught off-guard. While it remains fairly likely that the strongest part of Hurricane Earl will stay offshore, be well aware of history as well as the possibility of the impact this storm may have on trading later this week.

Markets throughout the world rallied sharply overnight after manufacturing data and economic information out of Australia came in stronger than expected. So, everyone piled o the ‘bullish’ side of the see-saw for the day at least with Tokyo up 1.6%, Hong Kong 0.4%, Frankfurt 1.1%, and London 1.4%. Bonds are down slightly, the dollar is notably weaker (which may prove to be a negative later today if that gets exacerbated) and gold and oil are both higher. ADP jobs data came in this morning at a loss of 10,000 jobs- worse than the 13,000 created estimate. Construction spending (a drop of 0.4%) and the August ISM index due to come in at 53.3 will be issued at 10AM with crude inventories to follow at 10:30AM and auto sales out at 2PM. Futures were strong as is- and rallied more after the ADP data came out as it’s the same story as last Friday- not as bad as it could have been. For the day, the 10Am numbers may well prove pivotal but look for the gains to hold. Trading volume will remain low with corporate newsflow also subdued. Focus on the earnings plays, the merger stocks, A-B-A2’s to the upside after 10AM ET and relative weakness plays early on.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

QDEL- received FDA 510k clearance for RapidVue hCG test

CHBT- closed near a high

CF- closed near a high

GIII- great earnings

SLRY- received 4.07/share cash buyout bid from KNXA

CASY- received raised 38.50/share takeover bid

JOSB- decent earnings

HNZ- decent earnings

JOYG- good earnings

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

APSG- poor earnings

FORM- poor earnings

RIMM- closed near a low

SNDK- closed near a low

SKS- island reversal in closing near a low after vague takeover rumors published earlier in the day

CREE- closed near a low

WINN- closed near a low after posting earnings



Earnings:

WED SEP 1 BEFORE

HNZ JOYG

WED SEP 1 AFTER

CGA HOV MATK

PSS SAI


Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner

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