Having grown up in the South, I am very used to hot summers. Of course, as I type,I realize it can get very hot in every place I’ve lived from Savannah to Chicago to New York. Everyone always comments that it’s not the heat- it’s the humidity. But sometimes (ask the citizenry of Tucson), it’s just the heat. In fact, here in New York, we just had a three-week run where temperatures ran significantly above normal with precipitation significantly below normal. However, what if you live in a place where it doesn’t routinely get very hot- a place that is not equipped to deal with the heat- a place that is not exactly known for being politically or economically modern (at least in the Western world). That place is a beautiful albeit vast place- Russia. Somewhere between ¼ and 1/3 of Russia’s grain crop has been burned by horrific deadly fires which has prompted the nation to ban all exports of wheat. Global reserve stocks of grains are fairly full thankfully which will help to mitigate an immediate-term global food crisis. But Russia is already predicting that its autumn and winter planting will be delayed if not halted which could lead to bigger problems ahead. From a macro vantage point, grains prices have soared and as Russia is the world’s 3rd largest producer of wheat, the situation could worsen over time if Russia has continuing problems and global stockpiles of grains were to decline. I mean, that sentence alone could form the basis for a 300-page treatise. So let’s instead briefly focus on what impact this has had on day trading in the last couple of weeks. The fertilizer sector had a huge run for awhile now with the likes of Potash (POT) having run from 86 at the end of June to 112 on Monday. That did not stop BHP from bidding 130 for the company nor did it stop POT from closing over 140 yesterday. Thus, the whole fertilizer sector remains in play as there is a limited amount of fertilizers and food yet a growing population- and many major companies are truly realizing that. This is not a one day story so monitor this entire sector as time progresses along with headlines about the situation in Russia and/or food shortages/surpluses as those will have more and more impact on fertilizer stocks…along with potential other takeovers in the sector.
Markets overnight were mixed in Asia with Hong Kong down 0.5% but Tokyo up 0.9%. In Europe, the range is a bit narrower with Paris and Frankfurt just south of unchanged with London off 0.5%. The dollar is quiet, bonds are back up a little, gold is flat, and oil is notably weaker by just under 1%. Futures are flat. It looks to be a fairly quiet day again particularly ahead of options expiration on Friday. There is a ceiling as the external indicators just aren’t good…bonds are staying strong, the dollar weak, oil is not acting well, and gold hovers at a multi-week high. But the floor is there with a mini merger mania here thus things will remain locked and choppy. Focus on the fertilizers, the earnings play, and the small caps in the news.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
ADI- decent earnings
LFT- decent earnings
CRDC- signed contract with ISRG
LGL- closed near a high after posting great earnings
MMYT- closed near a high
TRIT- closed near a high
REXI- closed near a high after announcing securitization of $175 million of leasing assets
JKS- closed near a high
GGC- closed near a high
MHS- featured on “Mad Money” last night
BSDM- received FDA 510k clearance to market the MicroThermX microwave ablation system
STV- good earnings
CHS- decent earnings
JAZZ- proposed Fibromyalgia drug appeared effective according to FDA
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
LZB- poor earnings
BPI- closed near a low
NFLX- closed near a low
CF, AGU- island reversals in closing near their lows
STRA- closed near a low
CDCS- closed near a low
CTRN- poor earnings
BJ- poor earnings
CTRN- poor earnings
DE- poor earnings
TGT- poor earnings
Earnings:
WED AUG 18 BEFORE
BJ CHS DE
STP TGT
WED AUG 18 AFTER
AMAT BRCD GYMB
HOTT LTD NTAP
NTES PETM SNPS
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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