I’m going to jump ahead slightly due to some demand/questions I’ve gotten in giving a specific example of a trade set-up which has been changed dramatically. Many years ago, when there was a major buyer or seller in a stock, the entity would acquire/rid themselves of the balance of a position in the form of a block of stock. Much more often than not, the stock would promptly move in the opposite direction of the prevailing trend violently as the overhang of stock evaporated. For instance, pretend XYZ had fallen from 50 to 40 over the course of two weeks on no news with volume averaging 1,000,000 shares a day when the market was neutral. Let’s also say that Big Name Institution was exiting a position of 6,000,000 shares gradually and had gotten rid of 4,500,000 over the course of two weeks. Many times what used to happen is that the stock would rapidly fall to say 37 on any given day and then one would see a block of 1,500,000 shares cross the tape. Well, if there is no news and Big Name Institution has sold all of its stock, there is nothing shoving the stock down artificially anymore and there’d be a rapid ascent in XYZ shares due to a lack of selling pressure. That process sped up in the Technology Age. One of my favorite types of plays occurred when a stock was in a strong trend yet there was a counter trend player in size with a bid or offer. Usually, once the big block of stock left, the stock would immediately move sharply due to the principle just described. For instance, BIDU was trading sharply higher last week and up on Friday(July 30) as well. There was a block of stock of about 400,000 shares being offered around 3PM that day at 81.30 (20 cents off of the then-high of day). What used to happen is that one would wait for the last piece of that block, buy it, and then shorts and momentum players would scramble with the stock typically rising back to its old high of 81.50 and oftentimes significantly higher. With the vacuum of selling pressure and the seller overhang out of the way, it’d set the stage for a nice advice; it is a pattern I’ve employed for over 10 years. However, with the shift over by Direct Edge to a stock exchange along with the increasing percentage of algorithmic trading, things have changed. What occurred in this stock is fairly typical. Once the overhang went away, the stock rose to 81.35, but got thrashed to 81.17 seconds later. Seven minutes later, sure enough, the stock went to 81.50. So what happened? Day traders like myself have made a living off of action such as the 81.30 to 81.50 (and north) move for a long time now. Algorithms know this as they have been programmed. So, what happens is that intelligent programs sell stock to unsuspecting immediate-term targeted day traders, we think we have something, and then get slammed and create a mini-panic when the stock goes below 81.30 (where the original seller was) because there was no reason for the stock to go below there as it never “used to do so.” Then, the trend ‘properly’ reasserts itself. So, in this and a myriad of other cases over the last 2 ½ weeks, the ‘new’ trade a solid majority of the time is to fade the initial move after a block of stock lifts with longer-term players buying the dip for a better entry. In this example, a short at 81.33-81.34 with a cover of 81.20 in seconds would work while the trend itself was intact thus an entry down there rather than at 81.30 as the block of stock disappeared for the move to 81.50 over a longer period of time also was the thing to do.
Markets overnight were mixed in Asia with Tokyo down 0.1% and Hong Kong ahead 0.6%. At this point, it’s meaningless as the jobs report has come out very badly. The dollar is a bit weaker against the yen and euro, oil is down 1% plus, and gold up slightly. Bond 10-year yields are at a new move low. There is now true legitimate fear that the domestic economy is faltering. Overall job numbers were down, private sector growth slowed (and miss estimates), and there was a revision down for last month’s numbers- a subtle 100,000 jobs to the bad. Oops. Futures are well lower. For today, look for a sharply lower open and then a choppy day. Private sector growth- while slowing- is there. Add to the mix a beautiful summer Friday and illiquidity will be rampant in a very choppy setting. Focus on the earnings (particularly things like AIG), the drillers (affected by ATPG’s numbers and a RIG downgrade), and relative strength plays with most of the volume occurring by lunchtime with the best/smoothest action over very early.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
CROX- great earnings
HANS- good earnings
KFT- good earnings
BID- decent earnings
MCHP- decent earnings
NANO- great earnings
MHK- good earnings
MRX- good earnings
AGO- good earnings
AFFY- closed near a high after posting good earnings
SINA- closed near a high after posting good earnings
RIG- closed near a high after posting good earnings
APC- closed near a high
FSYS- closed near a high after posting good earnings
POT, MON, DE, WIN, ONNN, CREE- featured positively on “Mad Money” last night
AIG- great earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
APEI-terrible earnings
RST- bad earnings
CEC- terrible earnings
NILE- terrible earnings
ATVI- bad earnings
CF- poor earnings
ELX- poor earnings
HAR- bad earnings
SGMS- poor earnings
EOG- poor earnings
PSA- poor earnings
LINC- closed near a low after posting bad earnings
MDAS- closed near a low after posting bad earnings
MNTA- closed near a low after Sanford Bernstein indicated a generic version of MNTA’s lead drug will likely hit the U.S. market this year
PACR- closed near a low after posting bad earnings
UVV- closed near a low
VECO- closed near a low on a report of fewer orders from Taiwanese rivals
ONXX- closed near a low in a island reversal
CECO- closed near a low after posting bad earnings
RBCAA- closed near a low after the IRS said it will no longer electronically underwrite tax refund anticipation loans
ATPG- poor earnings
Earnings:
FRI AUG 6 BEFORE
AIG AWI CEDC
DRQ DYN JRCC
MIR
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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