The Epiphany Trading Blog

This blog will only be viewable on www.CapitalMarketForum.com going forward.

Capital Market Forum Chatroom

Epiphany will now be participating in the Capital Market Forum's chat room located at
http://www.epiphanycapitalmanagement.com/epiphroom1.html

Epiphany Trading Videos

Thursday, July 22, 2010

THURS. JUL. 22- Tracking Fed Language

Traditionally for the last few years, I rake the rest of the autumn leaves in my yard in the weekend or two before Thanksgiving. Year-in, year-out, I have happy thoughts before I set out to do it. I think of all the times I raked leaves with my family. I think of how much my little girls love jumping in the leaves. I think of the cool crisp air with the breeze and sky foretelling eventual snow. All that stuff is great. What I don’t tend to truly focus upon is that last 1- 1 ½ hours of the task. This is the time when the kids are inside, the wind picks up a little more, my back is sore from raking and bagging 40 bags of leaves (when I expected it to be 10), and I wonder what could have made me ever want to rake leaves in the first place. The same type of malaise hit equities yesterday. Everyone was ready for Fed Chairman Bernanke to say positive things to the Senate Banking Committee yesterday in remembering the mild good things he has said these last few weeks. Instead, just as the 40 bags last year hurt, his comments about the economy facing “unusually uncertain” prospects spooked traders. Furthermore, he failed to offer any specific options he felt could stimulate lending and investment. Thus, if a pilot of a plane- who most passengers seem to have confidence in- suddenly tells you that the plane is encountering some turbulence, but is not quite sure how to deal with it, it’d make one nervous. This is what happened to stocks yesterday as investors sold off shares on worries about what is going on and what can be done to fix whatever problems there are because if the Fed Chairman cannot define it, who can? In the words of Joe Battipaglia, a market strategist at Stifel Nicolaus, "The market sold off because unfortunately there is no remedy provided in Bernanke's commentary to the rising threat of deflation, the excess capacity in the economy and the malfunctioning of the credit system." The surprise thrashed an otherwise bullish immediate-term environment. Bernanke will be grilled by the House today as he seems to be preparing the markets for a potential 2nd major qualitative easing program so keep your ears peeled for any additional comments or pointed answers to questions that Bernanke may make today.

Markets overseas were generally lower in Asia with Tokyo off 0.6%. Prices turned in Europe, however, on the heels of several strong reports on manufacturing activity with the bourses all up around 1% as of this writing. The dollar is relatively weak with gold and oil modestly higher. Futures have wiped out yesterday’s losses as of right now as well after the unexpected strength out of Europe as well as a number of positive earnings outlooks. Focus today on the biggest earnings morning of the quarter quantity-wise anyway with earnings out from a myriad of companies. Movement will be very choppy in this subset. Relative strength and weakness plays on the open will also be plentiful with the bounty of newsflow out there.

Reiterating-

If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

BIDU- great earnings

EBAY- good earnings

QCOM- good earnings

FFIV- great earnings

EW- good earnings

FNF- decent earnings

NTGR- decent earnings

XLNX- decent earnings

ETN- closed near a high after posting great earnings

CYT- closed near a high after posting great earnings

WFT- featured on “Mad Money” last night

LLY- decent earnings

BAX- decent earnings

DHR- decent earnings

ELN- decent earnings

FITB- decent earnings

NOK- decent earnings

TEL- decent earnings

XRX- decent earnings

UPS- great earnings

CBE- decent earnings

UNP- decent earnings

NYT- decent earnings

RCL- decent earnings

STJ- good earnings


Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

NFLX- terrible earnings

WDC- terrible earnings

SBUX- poor earnings

ISRG- terrible earnings

ADS- poor earnings

CA- poor earnings

SWI- awful earnings

DOX- poor earnings

ISIL- poor earnings

CMTL- closed near a low after announcing the loss of a major customer

AAPL- near island reversal after posting earnings

GS- closed near a low

MAN- near island reversal after posting earnings

RIMM- closed near a low

POT- closed near a low

EMAN- closed near a low

PNFP- closed near a multi-year low after posting terrible earnings

GCA- closed near a low after losing the renewal of a contract from Harrah’s

MLNX- poor earnings

MELA- FDA moving panel for MelaFind to November

DO- poor earnings

SHW- poor earnings

Earnings:

THURS. JUL. 22 BEFORE

ALK ALXN AN

APD BAX BBT

BMY BX CAL

CAT CBE CY

DHR DO ELN

ESI ESV FITB

FLIR HBAN HOT

HSY IDC JBLU

LH LLY LUV

MHS NOK NUE

NYT ORI PCP

PENN PLD PM

PNC RAI RCL

RS SHW SON

STI STJ SWY

T TEL TRV

UNP UPS USG

VFC XRX ZMH

THURS JUL. 22 AFTER

AMZN ATHN AXP

BCR BLUD BUCY

CAKE CB COF

CYMI DECK EQIX

FII FLEX HGSI

LEG MCRL MOS

MSFT NCR NFX

OSIP PMCS QLGC

RMBS RVBD SNDK

SPWRA SWKS

Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner

No comments:

Post a Comment