With the release of Alcoa (AA) this afternoon comes the unofficial start of the 3rd quarter earnings season. Every season has certain unique features and characteristics within the backdrop of the overall stock market much less economic picture. A year ago at this time, investors were simply seeking reassurance from earnings results that the level of profitability was at a nadir. People wanted to see that stalwarts such as Coca Cola (KO) were actually still capable of making money. Fast forward a year, a good market, and now a correction amid fears of the dreaded double dip in the economy. Now we’re at a juncture where profits are expected…but it’s not enough to see that revenues and earnings are there. Rather, what is going to be viewed as needed is growth in both profits and revenues. I know. That sounds funny. But it’s true. As just noted, investors were satisfied a year ago that the world was not ending. It’s not that way anymore. With the advent of a big recovery and the markets in a fragile and precarious state, this season will seek to truly separate the winners from the losers in terms of companies growing and companies…not growing. For day traders, the reactions in individual stock prices will be particularly sharp so be aware of every major earnings play as they will affect each day’s action.
Markets were mixed in Asia overnight with Tokyo down 0.3% but Hong Kong ahead 0.4%. Markets in Europe uniformly are trading near the unchanged line. Gold is down ¼% with oil off ½%. The dollar is stronger against the euro but marginally weaker against the yen. Futures are down somewhat notably with markets indicated to erase Friday’s gains. It is fairly quiet and with the weather nice outside in the New York area, look for fairly typical summer Monday action with lackluster trade and relatively low liquidity with volatility more muted than in recent days ahead of earnings season. Focus on the stocks in the news such as WY and HEW/AON, selected relatively strong/weak tech stocks, the drillers, and the smallcaps which moved Friday such as DCTH.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
RIMM- closed near a high after announcing it is to launch an applications store and services in China
MON- closed near a high after announcing it will maintain export approval status for Roundup Ready soybeans through 2021 rather than 2014
DCTH- closed near a high
DNDN- closed near a high
FCX- closed near a high
V- closed near a high after an upgrade; MA closed near a high in symapthy
GS- closed near a high
AAPL- closed near a high in shaking off a patent lawsuit
POT- closed near a high
AMZN- closed near a high
FSLR- closed near a high
CCF- closed near a high after posting good earnings
IDT- closed near a high
GBX- closed near a high after posting good earnings
DEAR- closed near a high
HEW- being acquired by AON for 25.61 in cash plus .6362 shares of AON
WY- declared $5.6 billion special dividend
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
AON- acquiring HEW; sees deal as accretive, but it's a major acquisition for the company
APA- rumored to acquire a significant amount of BP's assets
Earnings:
MON JUL 12 BEFORE
SHAW
MON JUL 12 AFTER
AA CSX NVLS
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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