Several people noted orally and in writing yesterday (at least within earshot and eyeshot of me) that they didn’t understand why Goldman Sachs (GS) was rallying if a financial reform bill was on the verge of passing much less a settlement of several issues with the SEC. Rather than going into the minutia of the financial reform package or the discourse of what has lead to its present state as those answers can be ascertained by a Google search, let’s focus on the exact question at hand- why didn’t GS sell off yesterday? There are three main reasons. First, no matter a trader’s style, he/she must do at least a little homework before commencing their trading on any given day. The fact of the matter is that the concepts of financial reform and the SEC issues did not just come about yesterday nor was it decided suddenly yesterday to vote on cloture and then a bill to present to the president. Thus, with the news out there for some time, this was clearly not a new worry. Second, whenever a major worry is taken off the table, it always sets the stage for relief whether in trading or in life. No matter how bad this financial regulation reform was going to be, there was certainty as to what it’d be as of yesterday- officially. Ditto for the SEC settlement which was announced yesterday afternoon. Finally, many analysts firmly believe that the regulatory reform and an SEC settlement could have been much more Draconian in nature. With a somewhat watered down package on the verge of passing along with GS’s past sins wiped out for lack of better verbiage, the nervousness that something new and sinister could occur for GS’s business was alleviated. I mean, Elin Woods supposedly got more from Tiger than the government/damaged investors got from GS! Therefore, when all was said and done, it was the shorts who were hoping for something worse who got nervous and covered rather than scared longs selling shares of GS yesterday.
Markets overnight were mixed but notably moved in some cases. Hong Kong was flat, but the Nikkei fell almost 3% in Tokyo. In Europe, averages are well off of their highs with the DAX flat and London down slightly despite the bourses trading up almost 1% earlier. Gold is selling off hard with oil down slightly, bonds up slightly, but for a 2nd day in a row, the dollar is getting pummeled with the euro having regained 1.30 and the 87 yen benchmark gone. For today, it’s not so much the bulls vs bears as it is past vs future. Stocks like GS are up on the settlement and AAPL on rumors that there will not be an iPad 4 recall. But the dollar as noted is very weak which indicates the market is suddenly worried about growth prospects for the U.S. economy. In what has been an extremely busy morning (I started placing trade orders around 6:30AM ET when GE first came out), it looks to be a very busy day particularly on an options expiration Friday. The core CPI came in slightly above expectations which provides some comfort, but the dollar is not acting well. Look for a down day today with the focus on the banks (especially pre-open), small cap biotechs (particularly the ‘weight loss’ stocks), big cap tech in the news (AAPL and GOOG), drillers on the BP news of the last day, fertilizers on their strength yesterday, and any relative strength play particularly on the open.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
AMD- decent earnings
JBHT- decent earnings
GS- closed near a high on rumors of an SEC settlement and financial reform passage; both occurred after the bell
BP- closed near a high after the company noted it had capped the well at least temporarily
RIG, APC- closed near high
POT, MOS, MON- closed near their highs
ID- closed near a high on rumors of a takeover
RIMM- closed near a high
SINA- closed near a high after being upgraded by Susquehanna
SD, ABT- mentioned on “Mad Money” last night
ANGO- decent earnings
IR- decent earnings guidance
GE- decent earnings
RLD- IPO of 12.5 million shares at 16 above expected 10.75 million shares priced between 13-15
AVII- received U.S. government contract with potential funding up to $291 million
SCHW- decent earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
GOOG- terrible earnings
PLCM- poor earnings
ARNA, OREX- closed near lows after VVUS’s drug was rumored to have been rejected
VVUS- sure enough, VVUS’s weight obesity drug was rejected by the FDA after the close
ONP- closed near a low
KLIC- closed near a low for a 2nd day after making comments on Wednesday about delayed orders for the quarter
BAC- poor earnings
COL- poor earnings
Earnings:
FRI JUL 16 BEFORE
BAC C COL
FHN GCI GE
GPC MAT WBS
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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