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Thursday, June 10, 2010

THURS. JUN. 10- Being A Zero

When I was younger, I would make an annual sojourn to the NYSE and then into mid-town Manhattan with my father. I was developing whatever knowledge base of trading I now possess and miss those visits more than anybody can begin to imagine. One of the more striking things that stuck with me all these years was the very brief conversation I had with an old-timer at a Charles Schwab outlet on 6th avenue near the present-day Fox News studios. I loved the action back then. Loved it. Had to be in a position. This one guy was sitting there watching me with a mixture of bemusement, annoyance, pity, and self-confidence. He watched me place three or four orders on my dinosaur of a cell phone at the height of 1993 technology. He asked me from a bench with one eye on the scrolling electronic ticker tape what I was doing. I told him. He asked how I was doing. I said I’d lost a little bit on the transactions and that I was ostensibly spinning my wheels. He then told me “Kid, it’s better to be a zero than a loser,” and then walked out of the office. It took me a few years and a few well-deserved grey hairs to understand what he was saying. First, ones doe not have to be in a position at all times. More importantly, it is much better not to tread water than to lose money. Namely, if you’re not sure what to do, don’t do anything. Why tempt fate? There are always going to be opportunities (obviously many more in these times than others), but the chances to garner a living will be there if you wait for your spots. So particularly in these volatile times, if you’re not sure *exactly* what to do at any given moment, why push the financial gun known as a “buy or ‘sell” button?

Markets overseas were higher overnight with Tokyo up 1% and Hong Kong up marginally on continued momentum about China’s recent comments about its economy. European markets are up about ¼% to ½% across the board with Germany relatively strong and Britain relatively weak. The euro and oil are slightly higher with gold slightly lower. The flavor of the day today seems to be positive comments out of BP regarding their financial position as well as a positive response to a bond offering in Spain. The well-received Spanish bond auction took a little fear out of the market and a jolt in futures with everything expected to open higher. For today, the key sector to watch once again centers in the oil patch with BP, APC, and RIG particularly in focus. It’s also worth noting that the main generals of the bull market of the last year- AAPL and GS- have both weakened in recent days so watch those two stalwarts. Other than that, focus on anything notably relatively strong or weak as compared to the broader tape particularly early on in accordance with the ‘hyperfast’ paradigm I’ve set forth in the past.


Reiterating-


If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

PBTH- closed near a high

MW- good earnings

SHFL- good earnings

WFMI, HAIN, CMG- featured on “Mad Money” last night

APWR- decent earnings



Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

BP- closed near a low although this morning they did issue a statement reiterating the strong cash flow of their business and that they saw no reason for yesterday’s sell-off

APC- closed near a low

RIG- closed near a low

DO- reversed in closing near a low

IMA- closed near a low after posting bad earnings a couple of days ago in a continued decline

RMBS- closed near a low on patent lawsuit worries

BIDU- closed near a low

DCTH- continue to decline in closing near a low following poor news at ASCO

AAPL- closed near a low in a continued sell-off after the iPhone presentation from Monday




Earnings:

THURS JUN 10 BEFORE

APWR DLM LULU

THURS JUN 10 AFTER

FNSR NSM


Good luck today.


Epiphany Trading, LLC


www.epiphanytrading.com


Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner

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