The S&P 500 is truly the benchmark index of large capitalization U.S. equities with trillions of dollars of market capitalization. The index is capitalization weighted meaning that the larger the market capitalization, the larger the weight of the stock in the index. Well, once a quarter, the S&P undergoes a share rebalance. The reason for this is quite simple: during each quarter, stocks move! For instance, if Apple (AAPL) increases in market capitalization by, say, $20 billion in a quarter, the index must account for that to truly reflect the proper valuation of the company. For sake of ease, say AAPL and GS were the only two stocks in the index, both with equal valuations on January 1 (say, 1). If AAPL rose 20% in a quarter and GS fell 20% in a quarter quarter, the index should reflect AAPL worth 1.2 as compared to GS at .80. Thus, each move in AAPL would take on more significance than that of GS in the next quarter (as it should be in this hypothetical example). It’s important not only for accuracy sake, but also because index fund managers trying to build a portfolio based on said index’s value needs to own the proper ratios of stock. Well, everything is readjusted typically on the 3rd Friday of the 3rd month of each quarter. Today’s rebalancing is somewhat more interesting than others in recent memories because there are a few more things than normal which need to be rebalanced plus the market has been volatile. Particularly notable will be an additional money flow into AAPL and money out of GS on the close due to their recent moves. There is no guarantee that anything will truly move on the bell today as there are widely available lists of the component changes, but it is certainly a phenomenon to watch at the close today.
Markets in Asia were mixed overnight widely with Hong Kong up 0.7%, Tokyo flat, and China down 2%. In Europe, prices are down about 0.3% to 0.5% across the board. There are some very notable troubling signs out there. The euro is stable which is good. But gold spiked to a new high yesterday and is up almost another 1% this morning. The Chinese stock market is now off almost 30% from its high after last night’s tumble. The 10 year yield fell sharply yesterday in a weird rush to safety despite the placidity with which markets traded yesterday (and again this morning). I don’t know that any of these caution indicators will matter per se today- a sunny Friday on a quadruple options expiration day, but they are all worth monitoring. Solars are again strong with energies and financials mixed. Look for a choppy day with a slight downside bias (barring huge moves in the aforementioned indicators). The movement today will likely be in the first and last hours with a placid middle. Trade accordingly.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
SMOD- decent earnings
SJM- closed near a high after posting good earnings
PDO- closed near a high
ANAD- closed near a high
CWLZ- rallied hard in closing near a high
CVS, WAG- reached an agreement in which WAG will continue participating in the CVS pharmacy benefit management national retail network for existing, new, or renewal plans
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
ADLR- Phase IIa trials of ADL5859 and ADL 5747 showed no improvement over placebo
KAMN- warned on 2nd quarter earnings outlook
HCP- share offering
BBBY- closed near a low amid worries of slowing housing demand
BANR- share offering
CPSI- closed near a low after suspending the CFO
NMTI- closed near a low after announcing that its ClosureI PFO product failed to meet its preliminary results in a product trial
Earnings:
None today
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
No comments:
Post a Comment