In the last three days, I for one have seen a very welcome return to something that has been absent for a few weeks intra-day anyway in the equity markets- follow through on moves for traders honed in on 1-5 minute timeframe-based trades. What has occurred since around President’s Day for the most part is that it’s a matter of 35 steps forward and 34 back (seemingly) if right and an immediate crushing (again, seemingly) if wrong. Now, I use the word “seemingly,” but in reality based on my trading as well as the anecdotes of fellow traders, this type of action has indeed moreso been the norm than not. Don’t get me wrong; there have definitely been things to do at times (particularly between 7:30AM ET and 10AM ET). Furthermore, if you’ve been a longer-term trader much mess an investor, it has been a good market for all of you and I wholeheartedly applaud your patience. With this said, the moves have been broader, more frequent, and much bigger in depth in the last three days. With the positive jobs data combined with the continued bull market brought back a bit of greed this week as people (right or wrong) are definitely gaining more confidence (as a whole) in the markets. And by the way, when things don’t go quite right, stocks are moving rapidly the other way as well. Thus, what has set up are a number of things that have moved rapidly on any news or strong market intra-day move. The only issue has been that it has been a bit harder to get significant size in some of these things as prices are moving. Just to pick out a couple of plays, this was one from Tuesday morning (I tried for 1000 in MEE, 5000 in ZANE, and 2000 in AAPL):
07:30:37 MEE BOT 200 51 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY
07:26:42 MEE SLD SHRT 200 51.7 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY
Or:
09:34:12 ZANE SLD 200 2.75 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY
09:33:42 ZANE SLD 300 2.74 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY
09:33:09 ZANE SLD 764 2.65 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY
09:32:40 ZANE BOT 264 2.51 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY
09:32:40 ZANE BOT 1000 2.51 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY
Or:
11:30:21 AAPL SLD 100 238.6 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY
11:30:21 AAPL SLD 100 238.6 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY
11:29:05 AAPL SLD 200 238.69 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY
11:26:32 AAPL SLD 400 238.75 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY
11:25:22 AAPL BOT 396 238.53 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY
11:25:22 AAPL BOT 100 238.53 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY
11:25:22 AAPL BOT 304 238.53 EPIPHANY18 NSDQSTGY
So, none of these were particularly massive trades nor did I come close to maxing out the profitability. MEE declined 2 ½ more, ZANE rallied another point (36%) more in minutes, and AAPL traded ahead another 1 ½ more in a couple of hours. However, when I get into a stock, I try to buy or short something that I feel I can make at least 20 cents easily in. It won’t happen all the time, but I only want situations whereby the odds are stacked in my favor. The fact that these things keep going admittedly bothers me more than a little. But the idea here is that I could post about 15 more of these examples from yesterday alone. Even if one cannot capture every dollar in a trade (who can?), one can still do fairly well when numerous stocks are moving. Thus, one never knows how long this will last; with earnings season coming up, this is hopefully the beginning of a period of some decent (rapid) intra-day movement within a bullish albeit quiet market. Closing on point, it is weeks like this one when one can really earn a decent living; make sure you’re cognizant of the market as it changes before your eyes and be there to take advantage of it.
Markets in Asia were down significantly overnight with Tokyo off 1.1%. In Europe, the losses were even deeper with the bourses down about 1 ¼% on average. Oil is down slightly and gold up slightly. The euro is a bit weaker. The main news event all night is something I’ve harped on in this space for awhile: the spread between the German bund and Greek debt ballooned overnight. The implication is that confidence is waning rapidly that the Greeks will be able to fix their financial straits. Futures state-side are down a bit also in padding on to yesterday’s losses. For today, things could get rather interesting if the bond spread continues to widen; that is the key feature for sure today. So watch for that number as well as the performance of the euro. Focus on the airlines, the relative strength (and weakness) plays, and the myriad of small caps with news out. Trading will be busy this morning, but will likely pause early afternoon as the Master’s gets into gear with the most awaited tee time (1:42PM) for Tiger Woods being quite anticipatory and stock trading suppressing before action picks up again into the close.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
LCC, UAUA, DAL, JBLU, AMR, LUV, AAI, ALK- LCC rumored to be in acquisition talks of UAUA; entire sector should be strong today
BBBY- good earnings
MDRX- decent earnings
SMSC- good earnings
AIG- closed near a high
FSLR- closed near a high after a brokerage upgrade
HOTT- great earnings
WDFC- good earnings
HUSA- got crushed on an Internet posting, but after the close, the company called the posting “unwarranted and outrageous”
MG- decent earnings
STRM- decent earnings
AMT- featured on “Fast Money” last night
CVBF, CYN- featured on “Mad Money” last night
IOC- closed near a high
PALM- closed near a high on vague takeover rumors
NAV- raised earnings guidance
TJX- good guidance
ARO- good guidance
KSS- decent earnings guidance
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
MEE- closed near a low on continued horrible reports from the West Virginia mine disaster
CML- awful earnings
FRX- FDA panel voted against approval of its lung drug Daxas
PNW- share offering
DISH- closed near a low as some buyout fervor ebbed
SLG- closed near a low
HOC- closed near a low
VHC- auditor announced “going concern” qualification
DGIT- filed for share offering
X- closed near a low
AEO- poor earnings guidance
GYMB- poor earnings guidance
ATK- poor earnings guidance
JCP- poor earnings guidance
Earnings:
THURS APR 8 BEFORE
FUQI PIR
THURS APR 8 AFTER
None today
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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