On Friday, in the ‘markets preview’ of this space, I called for a downside bias in noting that “there are a lot of clouds on the horizon with post-expiration weeks usually countertrend weeks, the Greek situation getting stormy anew, and healthcare legislation poised for a weekend vote.” With the markets reversing a bit on Friday and the outlook a bit murky versus the tide of liquidity, I want to delve a little more into my statement. First, fairly typical market behavior in the week after an options expiration week is the opposite of what occurred in the week or two leading up to options expiration. For instance, the NASDAQ staged one of its most historic rallies starting on April 4, 2001 and ending on Friday April 20, 2001 as the NASDAQ rallied from 1620 to 2202. On that Monday, the NASDAQ fell to 2043. Basically, a lot of options players not only unwind positions, but get stuck in positions they don’t want during the days leading up to options expiration so moves can get exaggerated. Thus, the day of options expiration and/or the days afterward tend to be countertrend in nature. Second, Greek Prime Minister Papandreou is doing his best to secure a direct pledge of European aid which would cut his nation’s borrowing costs as significant payments are due in the next couple of months. Investors are still demanding 3% more for Greek paper over German paper, but Papandreou insists that Greece cannot afford to hold out much longer at current rates. Thus, they want the EU to lower rates, but the likelihood of that just is not good nor does it make economic sense to the balance of Europe. In turn, this is leading to worries in Britain where the pound was ravaged on Friday which led to the euro declining which led to commodities and equities selling off. Finally, healthcare. Where do I start? Let’s keep it brief since you’ve undoubtedly read much discourse on the topic plus I don’t want this to become political. Let’s just say part of the plan is that wealthy investors would see their tax bill rise with a rise in tax rates on things like capital gains or dumb bank interest. This gives less of an incentive to invest so the markets need to price that in. Thus, one always needs to dig a little on the story behind the story particularly in interesting times thus this is a fairly important week. There are a lot of reasons for a countertrend reaction this week; the next few days will likely tell the tale on the strength and likelihood of the maintenance of this 13 month roaring bull market.
Markets overseas were hit fairly hard overnight with Hong Kong down 2% and the European bourses down about 1% on average. Somewhat surprisingly, the currency market is very quiet with commodities down a little. The main triggers for the weakness are the healthcare bill passage, some inflammatory comments out of China, and negative comments about the world’s debt outlook from the IMF. Futures are down a bit, but not sharply and volume has been light so far this morning. For the day, the equities markets should open lower; notably, GS and AAPL are weak. Interestingly, healthcare stocks are not down that much. Focus on the aforementioned healthcare stocks, big caps for guidance, and the stocks in the news for action today. Also, make a mental note of what is relatively strong in the morning; if the markets shake everything off, whatever is strong early will likely lead the way higher.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
TSL- closed near a high after announcing a share offering
POL- closed near a high after announcing earnings
SONS, SD- mentioned positively on “Mad Money” on Friday
WSM- decent earnings
NOVL- rejected $5.75 takeover offer in calling it “inadequate”
ARWR- reported positive trial data at its subsidiary Calando Ph.
CXG- CNX to buy rest of company for $38.25
BDSI- announced positive Pre-IND meeting on its BEMA Granisetron development program
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
SGA- crushed on the close due to a sell imbalance
SPWRA- closed on a low after announcing an accounting restatement
ADUS- closed near a low after posting terrible earnings
SOMX- reversal from Thursday and Friday’s mornings huge gains on a drug approval; closed near a low
FUQI- closed near a low; two major law firms announced an investigation into the company
AMSC- closed at yet another trend low
ANR- closed near a low
HGT- closed on a low after announcing its March dividend distribution
TVL- closed near a low
ONP- closed near a low
PALM- closed near a low after announcing abominable earnings Thursday afternoon
MDCO- closed near a low after “The New York Times” reported the company is racing to keep one of its key patents
BBX- reversal after huge recent gains in closing near a low
TIF- poor earnings
WLP, UNH- under some pressure this morning due to the passage of the healthcare bill last night
Earnings:
MON MAR 22 BEFORE
TIF WSM
MON MAR 22 AFTER
PVH
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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