Everyone has different aspects of their personality that can become accentuated. Furthermore, people tend to act differently in different situations. And don’t begin to think “I don’t” because everyone does. I am as much of a “what you see is what you get” person as you’ll ever meet yet I catch myself changing personalities involuntarily in different situations. For instance, around my daughters, I soften my voice tone, hold back any competitive spirit I have with anything in doing what I can to be nurturing to them. Around my wife, I’ll be anything from showing that same spirit to snippy when we have a disagreement about something. Around my friends, I can be bawdy at times in engaging about such topics as sports. Around ‘married’ couple friends, I am more stoic in engaging in such discussions as childcare and fixing closet doors. Basically, all of these facets of behavior are in fact “me.” Same goes for trading different kinds of markets. In 1999, I’d trade quite aggressively and almost only from the long side. In 2000, I’d trade quite aggressively and almost only from the short side. In this current environment, I trade aggressively only when there are pockets of activity else I go with the flow of the day and do nothing when there is nothing to do. In individual stocks, I refuse to trade stocks such as AAPL or GS when the market is quiet because these types of things don’t move smoothly when there is no momentum. I refuse to trade things like AIG when there is no news (but will at times trade it in size when it is moving). I focus on relative strength/weakness plays all day…except when the market is moving straight up or straight down because the extremes on both sides can catch up to the market at random. I aim to make at least 20 cents a share in everything I do except when the market is moving violently in which case my time horizon becomes compressed, my share size per trade goes down, and I seek to make more than 20 cents a share. In short, one has to change with the situation. Just like your own personalities can change as the situation dictates, your situational trading should adapt with changing market conditions as well. Just like you would not speak with your young children the way you would with your best friend, realize you cannot, say, trade C the same in a five cent intra-day range the way that you would with it in a 32 cent intra-day range. When the action in a stock or market changes, you must adapt your trading accordingly else the consequences can be harmful to your financial health.
Markets in Asia were generally higher overnight with the Nikkei up about 0.8%. In Europe, the bourses are up around 0.5% on average. Commodities are higher as well with the euro notably strong. This backdrop is setting the stage for another small positive session on Wall Street. The S&P 500 has been higher 10 of the last 11 days (the one day it was down, it fell 0.20). I know if I am playing roulette and the ball comes up red 11 times in a row in essence, I gotta bet red particularly with no real selling pressure evident. So, have a modest long side bias with a focus on fertilizers, big cap techs, and relative strength/weakness plays.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
NSM- decent earnings
ARO- good earnings
LDK- decent earnings
WPI- got FDA OK for new Trelstar formulation in advanced prostate cancer
NTRI- closed near a high
CLNE- closed near a high after posting good earnings
MBLX- closed near a high after posting good earnings
TVL- closed near a high after posting good earnings
GEOY- closed near a high after Lockheed Martin announced it’ll begin to engineer and manufacture GeoEye-2
GYMB- closed near a high after posting great earnings
GS- closed on a high
SWM- closed on a high
YUII- near island reversal after announcing its auditing firm resigned
AMZN- closed on a high
BUCY- island reversal in closing on a high after a brokerage downgrade
PNC- closed on a high
RXII- closed near a high
TREX- closed near a high
RFMD- mentioned on “Mad Money” last night
POT- raised earnings guidance; watch for MON and IPI to follow
AGU- withdrew offer to buy CF; TRA on upside as well
CTRN- decent earnings
HANS- announced $200 million repurchase program
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
ZUMZ- poor earnings
ERH- closed near a low
WG- closed near a low after posting earnings
AIG- reversed in closing near a low
SMTX- island reversal in closing near a low after posting earnings
PLL- terrible earnings
PSUN- poor earnings
SWHC- poor earnings
HRBN- closed near a low in a 2nd day of reversal following reporting earnings on Wednesday
BF/B- mentioned in “Sell Block” segment of “Mad Money” last night
CF- AGU terminated offer to buy the company
Earnings:
FRI MAR 12 BEFORE
ANN ARNA
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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