TUES. FEB. 2 - Self-Maintenance

How many of us out there have been nagged by a spouse/significant other to do something menial such as change a light bulb at a beside table? We always figure we can do it later and then we go to read a magazine in bed, we get annoyed because we cannot see what we’re reading? Another more serious example occurs when some people know they have to get an oil change yet don’t do it because it can always be done later. And of course those same people find that they have a much greater expense and much more detailed car work later after their cars don’t work. These parables are directly related in one major way to our stock trading. Namely, I am referring to self-checking our work. It is suicidal for a trader not study one’s trades- particularly done in the last year if one is not satisfied with one’s performance. On a daily basis, I go over each and every trade that I did the previous day and go over a longer-term time period’s worth of trades every 2-3 days. I particularly do this when I am doing very well and very badly. How else can I expect to get better if I don’t try to analyze what it is I am doing correctly in periods of great trading or to see patterns of mistakes when things aren’t going as well? I know each and every day to the penny where my account stands, what I am ahead for any given month, and what my income has been for the year. All ignoring such an important thing will do- particularly when things aren’t going as well- is to figuratively land my car in the shop for not regularly checking my oil- and to literally fail as a trader if I don’t see what it is I am doing as self-maintenance of one’s account is one of the only ways to stay level-headed as a trader.

Markets overseas were higher overnight with prices in Tokyo up 1.5%. In Europe, markets are up about 1/4% across the board. Oil is up a little with the dollar down a little. Futures are marginally higher. Look for a relatively quiet day with not much movement on either side barring any major discourse from Washington. Focus on the myriad of stocks with earnings as momentum today on either side will likely not be great.


Reiterating-


If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.

If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

HOLX- decent earnings

PCL- decent earnings

RCII- decent earnings

TUP- decent earnings

ARRY- decent earnings and getting milestone payment with AMGN for AMG 151

BKS- Ron Burkle announced he wanted to double his 18.5% stake in company

LEAP- closed near high on rumor that company is in discussions to put itself up for sale

LZ- island reversal in closing near day’s high after posting bad earnings

EXXID- closed near a high

MED- closed near a high


GS- closed near a high

X- among the steels closing near a high

MOS- among the fertilizers closing on a high

WYNN, LVS- closed near highs

FCX- closed near a high

SCBT- closed near a high after acquiring Community Bank & Trust in an FDIC- assisted deal

WEDC- closed near a high

MEE- closed near a high in a strong coal group

AEM- closed near a high in a strong gold group

RTEC- decent earnings

EQT- mentioned on “Mad Money” last night

CGEN- indicated its CGEN-15001 is a terrific protein for treatment of autoimmune diseases

LXK- great earnings

WHR- good earnings

ADM- decent earnings

DHI- decent earnings

DOW- decent earnings

EMR- decent earnings

STE- decent earnings

AMSC- decent earnings

MAN- decent earnings

CMI- great earnings

UPS- decent earnings

COCO- great earnings

ANN- boosted 4th quarter sales guidance

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

APC- lukewarm earnings

MNKD- lukewarm earnings

OKS- share offering

BP- bad earnings

PRGO- bad earnings


Earnings:

TUES FEB 2 BEFORE

ADM ADP AMB

AMSC ARM BEAV

BP CMI COCO

DHI DOW EMR

EXXID ETR GRA

HSY LXK MAN

MPEL MRO PCX

PRGO STE SU

TDW TKR UPS

WHR

TUES FEB 2 AFTER

ACE ADS AFL

AMX APKT CHRW

CTRP FISV JDSU

JLL MEE MET

MTW MWA MYGN

NETL NLC NWS

PXD RVBD SOLR

TRMB TSO UNM

VRSN


Good luck today.


Epiphany Trading, LLC


www.epiphanytrading.com


Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner