When the markets are moving actively, one can definitely momentum trade. When it is somewhat calm even with a slight bias, I go almost exclusively to news-centric trades. It is the height of idiocy, for instance, to buy stocks like Las Vegas Sands (LVS) after they’ve rallied 30 cents in minutes in the pre-hours when there is no major news and the market is flat because there is so much jiggling in it that it becomes quite difficult to earn a living. One must be ready to go with a bit of study ahead of time in knowing the major events of the day because one never knows when a trade can form off of said preparation. One of the major themes yesterday was keeping up with the gadget news. On Monday night, we learned that AAPL is going to officially launch its new device in March. Also, yesterday, GOOG was to make a presentation of its new Nexus One phone. The phone has been seen as a defensive move to the products of AAPL and RIMM. Into the 1PM ET presentation yesterday, GOOG had run over 30 points in the last three weeks..and four points in the hour before the presentation. As the presentation started, it was quite noticeable that the CEO was not the one doing the presentation. As the company rep began talking, it was also important to note that nothing dramatic was being said that wasn’t already known. Next, the market took a leg down. Finally, as the stock got negative, there were two notable offers which refreshed repeatedly indicating selling pressure was intensifying rather than loosening. As the stock got a little deeper into negative territory, it became readily apparent that if the stock could not hold up on the presentation combined with all of the other factors, there was a definite possibility of the stock really breaking. With the 626.50 seller present followed by a 626.40 refreshing seller in that it kept printing to the offer but failed to bounce, I got short the stock at 626.37 average. I did not post bids as such a strategy is the height of idiocy many times, but particularly so here as it was impossible for me to guess how low the stock could go. I used refreshing bids as my benchmark. When the stock fell to 625.60 and refreshed, I took the first piece off at 625.74. I used anywhere north of 626 as my uncle point because there were a number of offers present there. Sure enough, it had another leg down. The stock got to 624.60 and refreshed on the bid so I took my next piece off at 624.69. It got down to 624, 624.20 refreshed on the offer, back down to 624, and then when the 624.20 offer left, I exited the rest at 624.21. I didn’t need to randomly trade random stocks randomly in a random manner at a random time using random thoughts. I simply waited for my spot, was prepared with what I wanted to do, and acted. Thus, when there is a specialized situation out there, know the facts behind it, don’t be scared of it, and act on it. You won’t always be right…but you want to stack the odds in your favor and it sure as heck is easier to do that GOOG trade than it is to try to scalp a stock with either no liquidity and/or one with no intra-day range with no news in a neutral market.
Markets in Asia rallied about 0.5% on average, but the gains did not follow through into Europe with markets trading on either side of unchanged. Oil is down slightly, gold is up slightly, and the dollar is flat. As is to be expected from the environ, futures are slightly lower. ADP data was in-line and the rest of the news flow is slightly negative. Look for a choppy, ploddy session with no exaggerated movement…a fairly difficult day trading day. Focus on sectors such as the fertilizers where there is extensive news, keep an eye on microcaps with stories, and no scalping please.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
TPX- good earnings guidance
SNX- good earnings guidance
HIG- closed near a high
NEP- closed on a high
GS- closed on a high despite negative verbiage from analyst Meredith Whitney
KFT- closed near a high after Warren Buffett said he would not vote his shares in favor of the Cadbury deal
YGE- closed near a high
CIT- closed near a high
CAL, UAUA- closed near a high in a strong airline sector
APWR- closed near a high after announcing a positive Chinese wind turbine deal
JOYG, BUCY- closed near highs
OTIV- closed near a high after winning a contract for its eID product
UPG- closed near a high after announcing a distribution pact with K2
WYNN, LVS, MGM- closed near highs; an amazing start to the year for this sector
TRA- closed on a high
CAAS, ONP- closed near a high
CSIQ- closed near a high
IOC- closed near a high
CIE- closed near a high
HP- closed near a high
AOI- closed near a high
ASEI, OSIS, FLIR, COGT, ID, NICE- recommended on “Mad Money” last night
FDO- good earnings
CPHD- received FDA clearance for first test for patients’ resistance gene of hospital acquired VRE infections
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
MOS- poor earnings; POT may move in sympathy
SONC- terrible earnings
BZH- undertaking notes and share offering
CIIC- closed near a low
MON- poor earnings
WOR- beat on earnings, but missed on revenues
Earnings:
WED JAN 6 BEFORE
FDO MON WOR
WED JAN 6 AFTER
BBBY BLUD RECN
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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