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Wednesday, December 23, 2009

WED. DEC. 23 - Watching Yourself

We all must keep emotions in check as much as possible when we trade. There are numerous feelings we must overcome from anxiety to fear to exuberance. But arguably the most dangerous emotion when trading is sheer raw fury. Anger can replace annoyance when one has, say, 10 losing trades in a row or loses much of a day on one errant trade later in the afternoon or from an external factor as random as having an argument with a credit card or Internet company. A little anger can be a good thing because it can keep one hungry. But it is inordinately bad when the anger goes into the realm of the irrational. For instance, a trader a few weeks ago lashed out after his worst day by saying things such as he “only did proper set-ups.” Yet, when quizzed, it came to pass that I for one had not traded even ¼ of the stock symbols he traded…and of the ones that were mutual, he was doing things like buying SVA at 6.73 whereas I bought it at 6.50 a mere 47 seconds before he bought it (I even listed the price where I wished to enter- 6.50- on the general chatroom) thus he did the trade without stagnation and of course lost. However, instead of looking in the mirror, this particular individual blamed everything and everyone…and proceeded to lose every day for the next several days thereafter. The proper way to deal with anger is to stop and reevaluate. Think about what is going haywire. Trade in smaller size. Study all of your trades. Trade only with discipline and precision. If one does that, what one does is create a healthy outlet. After a particularly bad day, my senses the next day tend to be really fired up; I usually am in total control of my trades and in doing what I’m supposed to do, I tend to get back my bad day rather quickly- to the point where I wonder why I can’t trade that sharply all the time, but that’s a blog post for another time! In short, when you are angry, the first thing to do is to take a quick walk and breathe for a few minutes…but then realize that nobody is out to get you…except maybe yourself by doing things that internally, you know you should not do…and rectify it properly.

Markets in Hong Kong were up about 1% overnight with Tokyo closed. In Europe, prices are higher by about ¾% on average. The commodities and currency markets are quiet. It is the eve of Christmas Eve- the last full day of trading for the week. Look for a very quiet day with exaggerated moves in the microcaps and the continued upside bias discussed on Monday morning in detail. Focus upon the microcaps and the limited news flow with very nimble trading.

Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-

Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

TIBX- good earnings

RHT- good earnings

FINL- good earnings

ATHX- continued its stunning rise in closing near a high; signed collaboration deal with PFE on Monday and got an upgrade yesterday

POT- closed near a high in a major intra-day reversal after negative discourse by several fertilizers magazines over potash prices

AHD- closed on a high

MTG, RDN, PMI, MBI- closed near highs in strong mortgage reinsurer sector

OGXI- closed near a high on a bit of a reversal from Monday’s drastic decline

GMCR- closed near a high

BUCY- closed near another high after announcing acquisition of TEX’s subdivision on Monday

JBL- closed on a high after posting great earnings

IBM- closed near a high

EOG- closed near a high

SHS- closed near a high after receiving a takeover offer

AMZN- featured on “Mad Money” last night

IOC- Papua New Guinea government signed 20-year liquefied natural gas agreement with company

PSDV- positive phase III results from trials of Iluvien in patients with diabetic macular edema

CGEN- entered collaboration deal with PFE

ACHN- Roth Capital initiated coverage with a price target of 12

Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

ROP- closed on a low on its move into the S&P 500; priced offering at 53.15

ESV- closed on a low on its move out of the S&P 500

CTAS- poor earnings

GS- closed near a low

RIMM- closed near a low

WYNN- closed near a low

Earnings:

none today

Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner

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