Yesterday morning, I committed my worst Monday morning sin trade in several years. Exxon (XOM) announced an acquisition of XTO Energy (XTO) early in the morning. XOM initially got pummeled on the news as it was a stock deal, i.e. XOM is issuing stock to pay for the XTO acquisition. It is generally the case that when this dilution occurs, the acquirer’s stock goes down. Yet XOM was holding and holding and with a big offer at 72.15 (the high of a 20 minute range post-announcement), I bought some shares at 72.15. The stock had a quick little move to 72.20…and then went 72.15 offer. As was wisely pointed out to me later, I should have sold a little bit there. Did I? No. Sometimes one cannot just get-out willy-nilly in a fluid situation such as this because it is so early in the morning. I set 72 as my outpoint because that was the bottom of the range. Did I get out when it hit 72? No. Why? Why? I really thought about it and I could only come up with one answer: I didn’t want to take a loss that early when I knew there was a distinctive possibility it could get positive on the morning because it just wasn’t down that much. It never occurred to me that if that was the case, I could always get back in. And also, really, who the h-e-double hockey sticks cares? If one keeps losses small in the scheme of things, it allows for the winning trades to really matter rather than defray losers. So, instead of taking what would have been a relatively small loss, I evaded all my rules and wound up taking the worst loss I’d taken in awhile- all because I did not get out promptly. To my credit, I actually realized the sheer folly of my ways around 71.90 and wound up selling just below there in saving myself another 75 cents more pain mere minutes later after I exited…and 2 ½ more points had I held on all day. To hold for say, 15 minutes and lose 95 cents when the goal here is to get in and out- it is even beyond the stupidity I displayed. There are two things to be taken from this. First, hope has no place in trading. There are countless times I will exit a stock, take a small (and sometimes not so small) loss, and watch it go what would have been my way. Well, it’s always better to get out at 72 if you’re long and wrong than say 71 a share about 15 minutes later. It is preposterously ridiculous to hang on when you are wrong because inevitably you will get hammered over the head just the way I did yesterday…although, again, I did not hold on and on and on and on. Basically, I was financially reminded why I have the ‘out point’ rule when wrong…who cares where a stock goes after you exit?! It’s actually a good thing to be reminded of this every now and again as nauseating as it can be at the time as it keeps one from reinforcing bad behavior and keeps oneself from doing it again (hopefully forever no matter how reasonable the reasoning for something seems at the time). The other major point to note is that one bad trade does not a day make. Yes, it is true that while the XOM debacle cost me what would have been a really good day, it didn’t keep me from clawing my way back and earning a living- by trading the way one is supposed to trade. Following that XOM trade, I gave about five minutes up to about 45 minutes notice orally depending on the call and on the chat room on six different calls: a short of XOM, a buy of AIG thru a high, a short of RIMM though a low when it was on its low while the market was on its high, a purchase of AOL though a high, and a purchase of HPJ through a high in the two hours or so after the NYSE open. These six good calls more than wiped out the XOM loss in allowing me to garner at least a decent take home check for the day. I followed those trades up by doing basically…nothing. The volume yesterday was the lightest it had been in quite some time; I made a total of one trade from 11:45AM-4PM. And all of this was set up by a quick self-realization during that 15 minute walk of what I had done wrong and where I needed to improve…and realizing I needed to do it fast as the afternoon would be slow. The net of all of this is as such: every so often, you are going to do something very stupid. And when I say “you”, I am speaking to everyone here especially myself. The trick is to realize what you did was wrong and why it is wrong so that you don’t do it again. When I say ‘realize,” I mean truly think about what you did wrong, comprehend it, and be willing to admit the mistake to yourself much less the entire financial blogosphere. By allowing your ego to be shattered, you truly better yourself. And by the same token, upon truly realizing what you did was wrong and why it was wrong, don’t let it mentally much less tactically impede you from turning a four-digit losing day to a four-digit winning day in your trading account.
Markets in Asia were down overnight- about 1% in Hong Kong. In Europe, the averages are down about ½%. But there are a lot of negatives this morning for U.S. equities: the dollar is soaring against every major currency, gold is down 1%, and the economic news of the day has been poor with the Empire State Index coming in below expectations and PPI much stronger than expected. Look for a downside open to be certain; the first hour will be very important. If the averages hold, it’ll be a ploddy choppy day…if the market cannot get hold, it can get a bit tricky. Mitigating everything will be the WFC share offering; use WFC as a benchmark for the market individual stock-wise. There are a number of individual stock ideas on this list; monitor these stocks in the news. Be aware that liquidity will continue to be poor so trade accordingly.
Watch list:
12152009Eriklist.zip
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
JASO- raised 2010 guidance and announced buyback program
PZZA- raised 2010 earnings guidance slightly
CACAW- closed near a high
SIGA- closed near a high in a nice bounceback from recent weakness
APC, APA, CRZO- closed near highs after the XTO buyout
AAPL –closed near a high
X- closed near a new trend high in a strong steel sector
WYNN- closed near a high in a strong casino sector
ALXA- filed submission of AZ-004 new drug application
APOL- resolved University of Phoenix False Claims Act case yesterday; closed near a high
WFC- seeking to ezit TARP program next year; selling $10.4 billion in stock
ARRY- partnered with AMGN for ARRY-403 development to be used to fight Type 2 Diabetes
CSIQ- among the strongest stocks in a strong solar sector
SGEN- announced collaboration with Takeda for SGEN’s late-stage Brentuximab Vedotin lymphoma product
TSTC- closed near a high
C, CLNE, ERTS, NITE- mentioned on “Mad Money” last night
MGLN- raised earnings guidance
JAZZ- submitted new drug application for JZP-6 for fibromyalgia treatment
WY- converting to REIT status
CHTP- subgroup analysis of its study shows highly statistically significant benefits of Droxidopa therapy
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
PAY- warned on guidance for next quarter
DVN, EOG- near island reversals in closing near lows after the XTO buyout
CNO- announced 45 million share public offering
GOK- announced 4 million share offering at 9.25
FDS– poor earnings
GILD- phase III study of Darusentan missed primary endpoint
BBY- decent earnings, but warned of gross margin pressure in 4th quarter
Earnings:
TUES DEC 15 BEFORE
BBY
TUES DEC 15 AFTER
ADBE
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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