Against the backdrop of the steadily rising equity markets, Europeans in particular are nervous about various rumors of a debt disaster. There is some veracity behind these thoughts. In the last few weeks, Greek bonds have been devastated since newly elected George Papandreou noted that the deficit would soar to over 12% of GDP this year. Greece’s debt ratings have been cut by both Fitch and Standard & Poors. In turn, this has led to contagion among other European nations with dubious finances. Irish and Spanish markets in particular have encountered severe volatility as of late. The euro has depreciated materially agains the dollar on simple nervousness in the last few weeks falling from about 1.54 to about 1.42. Most analysts tend to feel that the EU would get together and bail out a member so as not to let another member nation default on its debt. This is not the Europe of yesteryear as the nations are now interconnected both economically and politically thus the consortium has a lot to lose if a member nation defaults on its debt. For Greece to land on its feet, it has to either massively cut spending (hard when the economy is deteriorating) or get a loan from the EU. Neither is likely; spending cuts will not lead to a resurgence of Greek economic growth nor do other nations want to throw a lot of money at Greece in the immediate-term so half-measures are likely ahead of what would be full-blown measures if the situation gets out of hand.
At the moment, a default in Greece, Spain, Ireland…or even the U.K. (not out of the realm of possibility if Greece’s problems are not contained) is not very likely. But it is certainly a situation to monitor as problems in developed albeit nations with weak economies can easily cause ripples throughout the rest of Europe and indeed the world next year as just the whiff of problems has already caused massive moves in currency, metals, and longer-term U.S. treasury markets. For day traders, as the VIX collapses to low levels as complacency is settling in a bit, it is a must-watch topic.
Markets overnight were mixed in Asia with Tokyo up 1.3%, but Hong Kong down 0.2%. In Europe, the limited bourses open are up with Germany up 0.7%. Gold and oil are both ahead a little. Futures are quite muted, but marginally higher as well. Look for a very quiet day (that’ll likely be the refrain all week) with prices not straying far from unchanged. Opportunities will be limited, but present in the microcaps and a very select few relative strength plays.
Reiterating-
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.
If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
NEP- closed near a high
TSTC- closed near a high
AONE- closed near a high
IOC- closed on a high in a continued surge over positive developments in Papua New Guinea
AAPL- closed near a high
CGEN- continued a reversal in closing near a low despite collaboration deal with PFE announced Wednesday morning, but announced it discovered a drug target for treatment of epithelial tumors this morning
FRE, FNM- U.S. Treasury to provide capital to firms in an effort to reassure investors in the debt of the two entities
VICL- positive phase 3 review for Allovectin-7 from a safety board
CALM- good earnings
AMZN- announced more kindles were sold than physical books over the weekend
SVA- filed clinical trial application with SFDA for vaccine against hand, foot, and mouth disease
RDWR- boosted earnings guidance
PAR- positive mention in “Barron’s”
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
PSDV- continued a reversal in closing near a low despite positive phase III results announced Wednesday morning
BUCY- mini-reversal in closing near a low after positive buzz over its acquisition of a subdivision of TEX
JTX- closed near a low after Pacific Capital announced it may sell its tax unit to a private equity fund which would hurt JTX’s business; Pacific Capital was to provide 75% of JTX’s financial products for the 2010 tax season
QCOM- COO resigned Thursday afternoon
QCOR- island reversal in closing near a low despite positive drug news
GSI- closed near a low after announcing a securities offering
KOSS- VP of Finance fired and company warned that financial statements for at least last three years are “unreliable”
Earnings:
none today
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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