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Tuesday, November 17, 2009

TUES. NOV. 17- Microcaps Are Back

One of the main features of the bull market environment of the 1990's in particular was the run-ups in select microcap stocks in the last few weeks of the trading year. With mutual funds not particularly active, volume drying up, and news flow slowing, a day trader has to turn his/her attention to more varied stocks to garner a living. So, what frequently happens is that a seemingly relatively innocuous piece of good news can take a stock much higher than one could ever imagine. Such is the case of Netlist (NLST). On Wednesday morning at 6:05AM ET, the following headline crossed my newswires: “Netlist Launches World’s First 16GB, 2 Virtual Rank Memory Module. It is called Hypercloud. Delving more into it- directly from the press release: “HyperCloud utilizes Netlist's patented rank multiplication ASIC technology to fully populate three memory channels with 16GB vRank RDIMMs. Four physical ranks are hidden from the memory controller hub and presented as 2 vRanks. Dual socket servers can then be fully
populated with 24 16GB 2 vRank RDIMMs reaching a total capacity of 384GB.In HPC datacenters, servers are typically under-utilized due to memory bandwidth and memory capacity bottlenecks. Netlist is addressing these limitations with its new high-performing DDR3 RDIMM solution, called HyperCloud.” Um hum. OK. Yeah. If you are a tech person and/or re-read that several times, you’ll be able to have a chance to understand it. Maybe. But someone clearly thought it was good as it traded from a low of 65 cents per share on November 10 to an intra-day high of 6.87 yesterday. Wow. Stocks such as RINO and REV have also had breathtaking rallies in recent weeks. So, despite the poor volume on this rally and a rotation of leadership, what has been working increasingly is the re-birth of the potential for huge moves in very small stocks. Furthermore, many money managers still chasing performance are willing to take a flyer right now because they have constituents to report to soon. Many of these money managers lost money last year and are trailing the averages this year so money begets money as these people chase performance. Thus, as the earnings flow slows along with the news flow between now and the end of the year, search for these type of small-cap situations particularly in the early part of the trading day as they will literally be the only things to trade on many days here on out through the end of 2009.

Markets overnight were down across the board with prices down about 1/3% on average in Asia and ¼% in Europe. Oil and the metals are down a bit with the dollar notably stronger against the euro. What is interesting to denote this morning is that despite the dollar strength, the futures state-side are not down all that much. So, monitor the dollar, but if the market begins to ignore that, it could get a nice little upblip pretty rapidly. The focus will likely be upon the solars and the microcaps.

Watch list:
11172009Eriklist.zip

Reiterating-Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea. If the whole story is not there -If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified- Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

ZOOM- great earnings

SINA- good earnings

TMI- great earnings

SPRD- good earnings

LFT- decent earnings

XJT- closed near a high after announcing a partnership with UAUA

REV- closed near another new trend high

GNK- closed near a high

NANO- closed near a high

HGSI- closed near a high, reversing weakness of early morning on the delay of its anthrax product application

NGSX- announced FDA approval of its Qutenza

KHD- closed near a high after posting good earnings

MEE- closed near a high

PFWD- closed near a high

GROW- closed near a high

CHBT- good earnings

CSIQ- good earnings

HD- decent earnings

NAL, DUF- featured on “Mad Money” last night

EJ- decent earnings

SKS- decent earnings

TGT- beat on earnings; missed on revenues



Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

SPWRA- restating earnings; said 2009 guidance cannot be counted upon

AONE- closed near another new trend low

PSUN- horrible earnings

SII- announced 28 million share offering

UTA- closed near a low on poor earnings

JEC- poor earnings

PLA- CFO resigned

WYNN- cut to “Sell” at Street.Com

TJX- poor earnings guidance









Earnings:

TUES NOV 17 BEFORE

CHBT COV CSIQ

HD JEC SKS

TGT TJX WX

TUES NOV 17 AFTER

ADSK CNQR CRM

EJ GIGM LZB

VIT



Good luck today.

Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner

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