Amid the hoopla of the great bull market of 2009 being fueled by this incredible carry trade (short dollar, long risk(ier) investments) comes some very real consequences. One of the portending signs of trouble longer-run (although potentially adding a lot more fuel to the fire in the short-term) is that China quietly signaled that it was ready to grant appreciation of the yuan after a 1 ½ year break from commenting on their currency. In its 3rd quarter monetary policy report, the equivalent of the Chinese Federal Reserve (the People’s Bank of China) hinted at a change away from the dollar peg which has been in place since mid-2008. The exact verbiage is as follows: "Following the principles of initiative, controllability and gradualism, with reference to international capital flows and changes in major currencies, we will improve the yuan exchange-rate formation mechanism.” This statement sets out the distinct probability of shifting the dollar-yuan peg. The global financial crisis forced the hand of the Chinese last week in freezing the peg to protect exporters. However, the Chinese currency has actually depreciated against other world currencies because of the peg which has drawn anger from many of its trading partners. In the longer-run, this makes American-made goods cheaper overseas and Chinese goods that much more expensive to the rest of the world. Furthermore, it actually strengthens China’s power that much more and the move acts as a litmus on the weakness of the dollar. In the immediate-term, it’d theoretically be a positive for the domestic stock market because it lends that much more credence to the carry trade that everyone seems so fond of and in fact, a yuan strengthening could exacerbate the stunning dollar decline. A policy move likely is not immediate as the Chinese government tends to be gradualist in its economic approach, but please monitor the situation in coming weeks.
Markets in Asia gave back a little ground overnight with Hong Kong and Tokyo both down just shy of 1%. The European markets are down slightly. Futures are indicated down about 1/3% as of this writing. The two main catalysts for the weakness thus far are a slightly stronger dollar and a slight uptick in the dollar against the Euro below the critical 1.50 mark. Look for a very choppy day today with an eye to the dollar. The market is quite buoyant so there will likely be an attempt at a rally…don’t look for anything dramatic either way today. Use WMT as a benchmark and follow the retailers, the stocks with earnings, sectors such as the drybulks, and big cap tech.
Watch list:
11122009Eriklist.zip
Reiterating-Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea. If the whole story is not there -If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
SMI- closed near a high after announcing the settlement of a lawsuit with TSM
REGN- closed near a high after announcing a partnership with SNY
TOL- closed near a high after posting great earnings
CYD- closed near a high
AMAT- good earnings
CGA- decent earnings
ANW- decent earnings
GRRF- good earnings
JDSU- mentioned on “Mad Money” last night
PVTB- mentioned on “Fast Money” last night
TBV- closed near a high
GEOY- closed near a high
PALM- closed near a high
DRL- closed near a high
DSX, EXM, GNK, DRYS- very strong dry bulk sector; all closed near their highs
CTRP- great earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
AONE- closed near a low after posting bad earnings
CLWR- closed near a low after posting bad earnings
AAP- poor earnings
CSC- poor earnings
TTEK- poor earnings
WATG- closed near a new trend low
JRCC- notes offering
KSS- poor earnings guidance
WMT- poor revenues on earnings report
Earnings:
THURS NOV 12 BEFORE
ABV ACM ATK
ECA KSS
URBN WMT
THURS NOV 12 AFTER
DIS JWN MSCC
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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