When watching our favorite sports teams on the TV, one can get very angry if a player on his/her team of choice commits a bonehead play. But, it does not mean we’ll take our shoe and throw it at the glass of the television set. Instead, one screams a bit, gets it out of his/her system, and goes on with life. So it should be with trading. You see, there are any of a number of a myriad of distractions which can cause one to needlessly lose money. Whether it is a computer issue, a solicitor randomly coming in the door and asking if anyone wants pumpkin seeds, a phone call, or an annoying commercial, there are numerous things that occur in our everyday lives which we cannot control. The secret, however, is to harvest the anger and cull it into a positive thing with a mitigation of the fury as the worst thing. I know if I am out of the room dealing with something annoying on the telephone such as finding out why I was overcharged for something on my credit card and it turns out it was the wrong time to leave, my natural inclination is to do the next trade I see –whether it is feasible or likely to be a loser. What I typically do at that moment is walk right back out the door and just take a two minute breath. Upon getting back, I try to focus on the task at hand rather than what has already happened. I am well aware that I cannot change the past…but I can change the future. I can steam all I want and I stay quiet, but it keeps me rational. Does this guarantee that I will do OK on the next trade or five? No. But it keeps me from being overly eager and/or overtrading in realizing that the external things are nothing I can do about at all rather than letting them distract me from trying to earn a living….and equally importantly, it keeps me from taking on aggressive trades which lead to losing big money.
Markets were higher in Asia overnight with Tokyo leading the way, up about 1.5%. The bourses were neutral to slightly lower on NOK’s terrible numbers, but are now down about ¼% on average. There is tremendous strength in the dollar today, weakness in gold, and bonds are weaker. For today, GS leads the way. Futures are down moderately, but the trend of GS will dictate what the market does. There will likely one lukewarm attempt on a rally with a likely failure if GS stays down 2% plus, but that will be the benchmark. Trade the earnings plays and stocks in the news, particularly pre-hours.
Watch list:
10152009Eriklist.zip
Reiterating-
Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
JADE- closed near a high after posting good earnings
CLF- closed near a high
BMTI- closed near a high after top-line data issued by FDA for its Augment bone graft
XLNX- good earnings
AVGO- raised earnings guidance
SLTM- received FDA approval for Fraxel re:store Dual system (and yes, that is the correct spelling)
WDFC- good earnings
APSG- featured on “Mad Money” last night
NYX- closed near a high
CNO- closed near a high after its positive Paulson deal
ASIA- closed near a high
ACOR- announced positive vote by FDA Advisory Committee for Fampridine-SR
PLX- announced positive top-line results from its phase III clinical trial for UPLYSO for treatment of Gaucher Disease
DSW- raised earnings guidance
PII- decent earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
LSTR- beat earnings estimates, but missed on revenues
LAZ- CEO Wasserstein passed away yesterday afternoon
PMF- among a number of municipal bond entities closing near a low
OPTT- continued to reverse following early huge gains on Tuesday morning in closing near a low
CETV- closed near a low after announcing poor earnings guidance
CCK- poor earnings
LVS, WYNN, MGM- China’s Guangdong province tightened travel restrictions to Macau
COF- September delinquencies rose
BAX- poor earnings
GS- great earnings, but stock selling off on news in pre-hours
FCS- poor earnings
NOK- terrible earnings
C- decent earnings, but still reported loss- bar was too high for whisper numbers
HOG- poor earnings
CY- poor earnings
UMPQ- poor earnings
Earnings:
THURS OCT 15 BEFORE
APH BAX C
CY FCS GS
HOG LUV MNI
NOK OMTR PII
PPG SPAR SWY
UMPQ WGO
THURS OCT 15 AFTER
AMD CBST CYT
GOOG IBM PBCT
PLCM TPX
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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