The Epiphany Trading Blog

This blog will only be viewable on www.CapitalMarketForum.com going forward.

Capital Market Forum Chatroom

Epiphany will now be participating in the Capital Market Forum's chat room located at
http://www.epiphanycapitalmanagement.com/epiphroom1.html

Epiphany Trading Videos

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

TUES. SEP. 22- Soaking In Success

Whenever it rains a lot wherever I’ve lived, I find that people do not change their water consumption habits. Just because it rained five inches in three days does not mean I for one am going to drink several more ounces of water a day. On a macro point, by getting a lot of rain, it certainly makes up for the stretches of drought where it doesn’t rain much for weeks on end. Yet, in the trading world, this whole mindset disturbingly could not be more away from reality. Even those grizzled veterans like myself who have been around for 56 years (OK, maybe it just feels like 56 years?) go through relative paltry patches whereby I’ll go a week or two without being ahead a great deal. Thankfully, for those among us who truly treat day trading as a job rather than do things like randomly leave in the middle of a day thus causing a disconnect in not knowing previous action in individualized stocks or the market when trading the next day or not do stock idea research, there are happily waves whereby the money flows in fairly well. Yet, particularly for those of us who raggedly will make money one day and lose it all and more in the next few days net-net, it never ceases to amaze me how that one good day is trumpeted. Instead of sayings like “I am going to put this away in case things get bad,” I hear things like “I’m going to buy myself a really nice TV.” This is why it is awesome that we cannot control the weather. If we did, humans in modern developed society would manage to screw up water usage rather than being grateful that we really cannot control it. Back on point, when doing well, one should obviously deservedly be happy. But one should also not take it for granted. Typically, those who do make those statements about buying things are the ones who fall into the ‘have a good day, lose it and more over the next few days’ grouping. See, discipline is the number one key to being successful in trading. Well, part of ‘discipline’ is knowing how to take not only failure in stride, but success as well. Thus, the next time you have a really good day, do not get too high; realize every single day is not going to be like that and store a little away. I’ll end with this: the reason animals like squirrels have been around for many years is that when they gather nuts for the winter, they don’t eat them all at once; rather, they bury them underground and use their keen sense of smell to survive to dig up their food in the cold months. This is certainly something traders should take a cue from when doing well.

Markets rallied nicely throughout the world overnight. Tokyo was closed for another holiday, but Hong Kong recouped Monday’s losses in finishing ahead about ¾%. European bourses were up even more with the FTSE up just shy of 1% and the German DAX up about 1 ¼%. Oil bounced 1%, the dollar is back down, and equity futures are following the world flow. For today, look for the market to hold its gains in a narrow band of trading with all of the focus upon the microcaps and news-centric stocks for day trading purposes; momentum trading is ostensibly out of play right now as long as the market drifts.


Watch list:
09222009Eriklist.zip

Reiterating-

Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
If the whole story is not there -

If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified. If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-

Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

AIG- stormed higher after rumors of a further infusion of capital by the federal government

ELOS- closed near a high after an upgrade

PALM- closed just off of a high

HNSN- closed near a high after positive note by Beacon Capital

DDRX- decent earnings

PPG, WYNN, APSG- on “Mad Money” last night

NLY- declared a bigger-than-expected quarterly dividend after the close

FFBC- positive conference call after trading higher on news it was acquiring Irwin Financial

M- upgraded by Citicorp after the close

TSL- closed near the high

CECO, APOL- among others in a very strong education sector to close sharply ahead near day’s highs after a positive Government Accounting Office report was issued on the sector

CAG- decent earnings

FDS- good earnings

KMX- good earnings

RAIL- good earnings

SNX- decent earnings

CBLI- announced grant for protectan CBLB502 research for mitigation of radiation damage

BSDM- positive phase III BSD-2000 caner study results


Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

AMSC- closed near a low after a downgrade by Piper Jaffrey

ZOOM- peeled back in closing near a low after Friday’s short covering

AMR- share offering

LPX- share offering

LINC- poor earnings guidance and share offering

LOW- poor earnings outlook

DAN- share offering

LIME- share offering at 5.50






Earnings:

TUES SEP 22 BEFORE

CAG CCL FDS

KMX

TUES SEP 22 AFTER

AIR






Good luck today.

Epiphany Trading, LLC
http://www.epiphanytrading.com/

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner

No comments:

Post a Comment