In the past year, I’ve personally seen two relatives die. I’ve had friends of mine have such horrors as searing physical pain to happy stresses such as the birth of a first child to mundane but intense stresses such as dealing with lawsuit(s). Sadly, we all have our own personal issues whether personality inflicted or more relevantly externally-related which we all deal with on a daily basis. It’s called life- and happily we all are alive. However, we must not bring our own personal demons of any sort with us to work. Trading has nothing to do with life since the stock market is an entity - not a living creature. Thus, what one must do to be a successful trader is compartmentalize. The fact that I was up until an ungodly hour on Sunday after my oldest daughter had enough fever to rush her to a pediatric hospital (thankfully, she was fine and responded to medication) could not impede my efforts to earn money to pay for our mortgage on Monday morning. My worries about her health were not going to influence the direction of the S&P 500. The phone calls I made to the doctor and to my mother-in-law (who was watching her the next day) were not going to impact where the dollar fell or gold prices rose. So, what I try to do is what I encourage all of you to do- realize that trading is a game. A very hard game, but a game. Furthermore, realize that you must put aside your personal issues and focus solely on stock prices in order to be effective. If you’re taking phone calls 12 minutes after the NYSE open or thinking randomly about personal matters, it takes away the searing focus you need to trade well. Thus, if you’re going to try to trade, do just that- trade with your mind focused solely on trading. It is not easier said than done; it is easy to do. Why is it easy? Simple. When I look back on my P&L statements as I do often, I notice that on the days when my mind wandered (even on happy matters like planning for a baby naming), I typically either lost or didn’t do as well as on days when I truly honed in. That was all the motivation I needed. Thus, when at work, truly do that if at all possible- work.
Everything is very quiet. Markets in Asia were down about ½% overall. In Europe, most bourses are barely moving from the unchanged line. Gold is marginally ahead, oil down a bit, and the dollar and bonds flat (although bonds were very strong yesterday). Today will likely be a very muted session. The market acts overextended in here yet nobody is selling anything so it is more of a buyer’s strike leading to equilibrium. Combined with it being an options expiration day, don’t look for much movement. It is going to be one of the harder days to trade with not much newsflow nor movement plus many people leaving early because of a Jewish holiday and the good weather. Trade very very very carefully.
Watch list:
09182009Eriklist.zip
Reiterating-
Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified.If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
I.HS- good earnings
ARNA- due out with conference call this morning to discuss its obesity drug; it rallied sharply last night, but may well go negative as it is close to unchanged as this is being typed
DNDN- closed near a high on more takeover rumors
SPDE- closed sharply higher after announcing a U.S. Army contract
GENZ- closed near a high
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
PALM- beat earnings, but offering 16 million shares
STEC- closed near a low on fears of increased competition
GGC- increasing authorized number of shares outstanding
Earnings:
FRI SEP 18 BEFORE
none
FRI SEP 18 AFTER
FMCN
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
Joseph R. McCandless- Managing Partner
D. Timothy Seaquist- Managing Partner
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