On Friday, the Federal Reserve postponed the release of the findings of its stress tests on the 19 largest U.S. banks as bank executives debated the initial findings with government examiners. The results, originally scheduled for release yesterday morning will now be out some time Thursday afternoon (likely after market hours, I’d presume). The ‘good’ here is that no matter what one thinks of these exams much less the credibility of the tests, it appears as if a good faith effort to get things right particularly by bank executives is being focused upon. Bankers obviously have a right to understand what is happening to their own banks so time has been granted to make sure everything is as understood as positive. However, the negative view is just as fascinating and reasonable. One of the major issues in this very mechanism is how exactly the results will be viewed. The fact that the findings are being delayed shows that there may well be worries about the reactions in stock prices by the banks which may need a lot of help. In fact, there have been great pains taken by government officials to note that this is a stress test rather than a solvency test. Thus, there are major worries that the weaker banks could suffer a near complete collapse in their stock prices – entities like Regions Financial (RF) and Fifth Third Bank (FITB) in particular are being focused upon. For day traders, there are two issues at stake here. First, it is a complete guessing game as what will be said about which bank. It is widely assumed that most banks will be OK; indeed, entities like GS went to the private market for funding several days ago rather than the government- something they would not have been able to do if hey needed governmental support (in all likelihood). But one cannot day trade based on what he/she thinks will happen; for instance, if one thinks WFC will need money, it does not mean on any given day that WFC will decline as the perception at the moment is that everything is going to be fine overall ergo you have huge rallies in these stocks. Second, things will likely remain somewhat quiet volume-wise until these stress test results are released. The relatively illiquid markets mean day traders must focus upon the opportunities which present themselves- particularly those in the early morning when things are more volatile. Thus, monitor the situation closely and do not take any undue risk.
Markets in Asia were slightly higher overnight with Tokyo up just under 1%, but prices in Europe are actually slightly lower right now. Oil is down a bit with bonds, currencies, and the metals quiet. Just as I missed the subtle cue yesterday from what the overseas markets were telling us in totally guessing incorrectly that it’d be quiet yesterday, I don’t want to miss that cue this morning in (re-)learning my mistake. With banks having run-up sharply into the close, it is likely that there will be a bit of a pullback just after the open; JPM and WFC both rallied almost a dollar in the last few minutes of the day. Thus, look for a slight decline yet the markets are well bid right now as the S&P 500 going into the black yesterday has brought some of that ‘train is leaving the station’ feeling into the situation. Thus, use financials (particularly JPM and WFC) as your benchmarks to guide the rest of the day. Remember, the purpose of day trading is to quickly enter and exit situations…if things change (as they did yesterday rapidly), change with them.
Watch list:
05052009Eriklist.zip
Reiterating-
Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
MGM- posted earnings after the close; indicated it is in the process of selling assets and modifying debt…LVS and WYNN will likely move with it
GERN- mentioned on “Fast Money” last night
EOG- decent earnings
HLF- great earnings
CRK- good earnings
AFG- good earnings
FOE- closed on a high
EL- closed near a high after posting great earnings yesterday morning
JPM, WFC, GS, MS, PNC, USB, BK, STT- among the big financials which closed near their highs
PFG- decent earnings
SYKE- decent earnings
WAC- closed on a high
CPSL- closed on a high
NIHD- closed near high of the day
PLCE- continued its massive recent rally in closing near yesterday’s high
CROX- closed near a high
XTEX, XTXI- among the tiny energy entities which had massive short covering yesterday
XTO- closed near a high
VNO- closed near a high
FST- closed near a high
FR- closed near a high
SLG, WL- among the smaller REIT’s which closed near their highs
ALY- closed near its high
CLW- closed near its high in a huge move after great earnings posted on Thursday
TKLC- mentioned on “Mad Money” last night
HLS- decent earnings
TEVA- decent earnings
CTSH- good earnings
KFT- good earnings
MVL- good earnings
LLY, AMLN, ALKS- announced a new drug application for once weekly Exenatide has (finally) been submitted to the FDA
RAIL- good earnings
VRX- good earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
MYGN- terrible earnings
FMC- bad earnings
CHK- bad earnings
MCK- bad earnings
HOLX- terrible earnings
HLIT- terrible earnings
SNHY- bad earnings
FCN- closed near a low
ZBRA- bad earnings
DBD- bad earnings
Earnings:
TUES MAY 5 BEFORE
ADM ADP AVP
AYE BAM CEG
CHD CTSH CVS
DBD DEI DNR
DRH DUK EMR
FCL FE GET
HEW HLS HNT
HW ICE JOE
KFT LM MAC
MLM MVL NAT
PAG PCP PER
PGN PNW PQ
RAIL RBA SE
SRE TEVA UNT
VNO VRX VTR
WEC WTI WY
WYNN XEC ZBRA
TUES MAY 5 AFTER
ACAS ALTH AMMD
ARG BBG BRE
CDR CEPH CIM
COGT CRL CTX
CUZ DIS DVR
ERTS HCC HLTH
HLX HRS JCOM
JKHY LNC LVS
MWA PBI SGY
UDR UPL VCLK
XCO
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
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