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Yesterday, the U.S. Treasury indicated it is seeking a way to reveal the details of the tests it is currently conducting to determine the shape of the biggest banks in the United States. Usually, the innards of such bank exams are not released to the public. In previous discourses of the current stress test procedures in which the biggest 19 U.S. banks have been tested against the potential for declining economic conditions, the Treasury said it’d only reveal the amount of capital it gave to said banks rather than details of how the numbers were arrived upon. After all, the purpose of the program is to prevent panics rather than cause them which is why the Treasury fears that details of the tests will somehow be leaked. This is why the release of the data has been delayed until after the bulk of the first quarter earnings season (GS just reported, JPM reports today, C reports tomorrow, and so forth). The reason for this is to avoid complication the reaction of the equities to the results of the test. It’d seem- and this is totally off the cuff- that it’d be in the best interests of the banks much less the government for each bank to pass the test which would theoretically restore confidence in the system by the public. However, Treasury officials likely worry about how the stocks of the banks determined to need a large amount of capital (even if ‘passing’ the test) would react. For day traders, this is certainly a situation to monitor. It is certainly not in the interest of any bank to hypothesize how much capital they may need nor should they necessarily do so. However, there are many people out there guessing what each of these banks is going to need and when the results/money are released, it will become a focal point for any trader interested in bank stocks. In the interim, it is something to keep an eye on; however with no concrete data, it is simply a situation to wait to speculate upon until said information is provided.
Markets in Asia were mixed overnight with prices in Europe rising about ¾% on average. State-side, futures are stronger based on JPM’s results. And JPM will indeed likely be the story for the day for market reaction. Look for a very very busy morning (as it has been already) with JPM the leader one way or another…markets will likely be weak relative to JPM to start with the newsflow out there re poor housing starts number, but the trend of the most notable financial name on the planet on its earnings will likely set the way for the day for the markets.
Reiterating-
Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
MVSN- raised earnings guidance slightly for the year
RJF- warned badly on Tuesday afternoon; stock still finished down but on its high of the day
COF- shook off news of a rise in bad loans in closing near a high
OC- closed near high of the day
JPM, BK, USB, WFC, PNC, STT, STI- all closed near their highs of the day
SPG, VNO, WRE, WRI, CBL- among the REIT’s which closed near high of day
GCI, BIIB- mentioned positively on “Fast Money” last night; GCI also with earnings and BIIB with drug news
RAS- doing IPO at 18
GMKT- bought out by EBAY for 24
JAH- pre-announced earnings to upside
DCTH- closed near a high
SCHW- closed on a high after posting good earnings
AXP- huge rally yesterday; closed near a high
CYD- closed near a high
HOG- great earnings
CY- good earnings
LUV- good earnings
NOK- terrific earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
ATR- missed earnings estimate for quarter
LSTR- missed earnings estimates for quarter slightly
PLCM- missed earnings estimates
KMP- poor earnings
DRE- announced 64 million share offering and issued slightly warning for the quarter
NCTY- closed on its low amid rumors that the company lost its license to its best selling videogame (World of Warcraft)
LUFK- closed near a low after posting terrible earnings
BGG- bad earnings
PH- poor earnings
PII- bad earnings
LNC-downgraded by Moody’s
Earnings:
THURS APR 16 BEFORE
APH BAX BGG
CY FCS GCI
GPC HOG ITW
JPM KNL LUV
NOK PH PII
PPG SHW SON
UMPQ
THURS APR 16 DURING
ASBC (1PM ET)
THURS APR 16 AFTER
AMLN BIIB CYT
GOOG ISRG PBCT
TPX VRTX
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
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