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Tuesday, March 3, 2009

TUES. MAR. 3- Gee, GE

On Friday, after many reiterations that it was not going to happen from CEO Jeff Immelt, General Electric (GE) cut its dividend on Friday massively- in a move that will save the company approximately $9 billion in dividend payouts. In fact, Immelt put his money where his mouth was in buying 50,000 shares of GE stock and brought along the vice-chairman of the company for the ride as he too bought 50,000 shares. There are two ways to look at this. First, many prospective investors took the glass half-full perspective in noting that the company is preserving its capital which strengthens its balance sheet which will hopefully allow the firm to keep its AAA corporate bond rating. Those bearish on the stock would note the obvious- how many people/entities out there own GE stock for its staidness- its conservatism- indeed, its steady dividend? And now, many of those people have taken the last day to sell their shares as they are unwilling to accept the possibility of more risk; this action shoved GE down incredibly over 10% more to another multi-year low yesterday. For the purpose of day traders who don’t want to scalp GE as doing so can be quite difficult (my worst trade on Friday occurred when I shorted GE on the news of its dividend cut as the stock promptly spiked), there is a point to all of this: namely, in addition to everything else, we can actually possibly bring into the mix a discussion of financial problems at GE. I am not sure that happens quite yet, but any rumors of problems there will impact the market dramatically and day trading at that. One of my favorite factoids is that approximately one cent of every dollar the average American spends goes to GE- whether on aerospace or a light bulb. This is a gigantic company and any rumors of anything –good or bad- at GE will have a direct impact on the stock market.

Markets in Asia were down about 1 to 2% on average, but did close off of their lows. European bourses are actually mixed after opening down. Oil is up with gold continuing its recent pullback. Futures are indicated higher. The markets are very oversold with the Dow down almost 20% in the last month with bearish sentiment palpable. Thus, any breath of good news or an abatement in selling could lead to a round of short covering- I think that happens today. After opening higher, look for the built-in mentality of ‘sell strength’ to kick in, but I don’t think that the selling has legs today as the overseas market had the opportunity to really be crushed yet it did not happen. Thus, look for an A-B-A2 day to the upside…and it could be a very strong one at that.

Watch list:
3309Eriklist.zip
Reiterating-
Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

HPT- decent earnings

MWE- great earnings

PDLI- solid earnings

EGLE- good earnings, but doing a shelf offering for capital

EIX, PEP- mentioned positively on “Mad Money” last night

AZO- strong earnings

XLNX- raised quarterly revenue guidance


Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

MDR- missed earnings estimates for the quarter

TEG- closed on a low

MIR- the tumble on poor earnings continues…closed on a low

ICTG- received 8/share takeover bid, but sold off much of day yesterday

SFL- closed near a low

TXT- closed near a trend low

CLF- closed near a trend low

JPM, USB, COF, GE- all closed near their lows

SLM, NNI- sell-off in student loan marketers continued; both closed near their lows

WYNN- closed on a low

HUM, WCG- among health care equities closing near their lows

XOM, CVX- big-cap oil stocks followed oil prices down in closing near lows of day

GENZ- FDA requested more paperwork from the company for one of its drugs

HWG- filed chapter 11 paperwork. Stock was at 19 Friday. Wow.
BMRN- closed on a low

SHLM- closed on a low

ESRX- closed on a low; down 10 points plus in days

EXPD- closed on a low

ABMD- closed at a trend low

ENER, GMXR, XTEX, DVN, XEC- among energy stocks- large and small- closing on their lows

WMGI- closed on a new trend low

SWSI- broke to a new trend low

MDCO- closed on a new trend low

MNTA, VVUS- among smaller biotechs belted in closing near their lows

PWRD- major reversal after posting earnings

UNT- closed on a low of day

CRK- closed near a low

CMI- broke to a new trend low

OI- broke to a major trend low

PTV- closed on a new trend low

CVH- among healthcare entities breaking to a new low

TWP – closed at a new trend low

IDCC- missed quarterly earnings estimate



Earnings:

TUES MAR 3 BEFORE

ARD AZO BMO

BNS CHS CRZO

SSW TECD TSL

XLNX

TUES MAR 3 AFTER

ADCT NZ PAY


Good luck today.

Epiphany Trading, LLC

www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President

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