Once upon a time not very long ago, the term ‘sector rotation’ meant something entirely different than it did now. It used to mean a simple transitioning of money between groups of equities…into tech out of financials or out of speculative stocks and into conservative stocks. Now, it has taken on an entirely new meaning. The new paradigm centers upon the hypothesis that entire sectors may be absolved of any opportunity to achieve profitability due to presidential politics. Now, I like to keep politics out of this as it is a day trading blog, but sometimes particularly when perceptions can shape reality, it is worth touching on. The best example is the healthcare companies. Coming off a persona tragedy made more complicated by difficulties with insurance companies, well, I don’t have a high opinion of health care entities right about now because of all of the hassle. However, focusing on numbers (which is cold, but I am making a point), the destruction of wealth to people who work for these companies is enormous as well as overall re the public vs private debate is enormous. The money that will be (theoretically) saved is (definitely) being more than replaced by the loss of jobs and the incentive of doctors (right or wrong) to do as good of a job because they don't get paid as well. And second and more on point, there is a massive fear of "who's next." I see it every day. Earlier this week, it was the life insurance companies...Met, Prudential, Hartford Life, and so on. Are we supposed to buy our life insurance from the government? Monday, it was the airlines...United, Delta, AMR. Are we not supposed to have an airline industry? Last week, it was the newspapers (NY Times, Gannett). Basically, investors are petrified because nobody knows what is next and that perpetuates this crisis. The average American investor has lost more than half of his/her money in the stock market in the last 16 months. So, even though it seems trivial and theoretical re things like the health care companies, leaving politics out of it entirely except to note that government bureaucracies are as bad if not substantially worse than private entities, the real destruction of wealth resulting from all of this is devastating. And these days, sector rotation is ‘which sector is going to race to zero.’ On a day trading basis, all sorts of opportunities (and pitfalls) are created as equities like the banks will remain volatile yet susceptible at any given moment to a rumor.
The markets in Asia were mixed with Tokyo up 2%, but Hong Kong down 1%. In Europe, bourses are getting drilled to the tune of about 2% to 3% across the board. Oil is falling back and the dollar is stronger. Essentially, the ‘Chinese plan’ failed to live to the hype so right back down we go. Combined with all the downgrades, It is just not good. Futures are indicated sharply lower. There will likely be some weak attempt at a rally at some point, but the mood is pervasively negative. Ahead of the jobs report tomorrow, look for a bit quieter day than yesterday in a choppy range, but all to the downside unless there is some wild abolishment of the ‘mark to market’ rumor which would cause another round of short covering.
Watch list:
3052009Eriklist.zip
Reiterating-
Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
GA- good earnings
MR- beat on quarterly earnings
SIGM- good earnings
WTW- terrific earnings
ADBE- preannounced slightly to upside on earnings guidance
HIG- rumors abounding that company is trying to sell its life insurance division
GE- company said it sees no needs to raise capital and that it is ‘well positioned’ in this difficult environment; CFO on CNBC this morning said that GE capital is “not a timebomb”
DRYS, EGLE, GNK EXM- dry bulk shippers had a great day yesterday; momentum may continue today particularly if they open lower
URS- closed near a high after posting great earnings
IDT- exploded higher yesterday amid rumors of an oil deal with Total
D, JOYG- mentioned on “Mad Money” last night
CNQ- beat quarterly earnings estimates handily
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
MATK- bad earnings
PETM- poor earnings
GYMB- wretched earnings warning for next quarter
WFC, JPM- put on ‘negative review’ watch list at Moody’s
GM- indicated it will likely have its auditor issue a ‘going concern’ letter somewhat soon
GIL- closed at a new trend low
BYI- closed near a new trend low
AL- closed at a new trend low
SOA- closed at a new trend low
Earnings:
THURS MAR 5 BEFORE
ABV CIEN GCO
URBN WNR
THURS MAR 5 AFTER
BOOM CLNE CLWR
COO EBS FRP
FSYS IPI MRVL
TNE WIND
Good luck today.
Epiphany Trading, LLC
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President
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