The Epiphany Trading Blog

This blog will only be viewable on www.CapitalMarketForum.com going forward.

Capital Market Forum Chatroom

Epiphany will now be participating in the Capital Market Forum's chat room located at
http://www.epiphanycapitalmanagement.com/epiphroom1.html

Epiphany Trading Videos

Thursday, March 19, 2009

THURS. MAR. 19: March Madness

Tomorrow, I will write a more detailed explanation of what happened yesterday as things sort out a bit, but for today, I have to write the following piece as this is amazingly arguably more important for the day trading world in my head (and I’m not kidding) as the next two days are fraught with peril for day tradersparticularly in the afternoons ergo I must make the point: Louisville. UConn. Pitt. UNC. MSU. Memphis. Duke. Oklahoma. Should Memphis have gotten a 1 seed over Pitt? If MSU had won the Big Tournament, should they have gotten a 1 seed? A five loss Louisville team got the overall top seed in the NCAA’s? Of course, if L’ville did not get it, who would? Nope, I am not guest writing a column for ESPN or Yahoo Sports. Rather, I am making a point – particularly to those who are either new to day trading and/or those with a propensity to scalp. I don’t have numbers in front of me, but it is safe to say that a high proportion of those who trade for a living also have an interest in the basketball tournament whether it be a rooting interest or a monetary interest. So what ends up happening on the first Thursday and Friday of the tournament? TV’s all across the great USA become tuned to CBS over CNBC and people want the score reports over the Faber Report. Thus, the bulk of the trading tends to be done in the first half of the day as the games typically starts just after 12:30PM ET. Furthermore, the tournament also typically occurs during quadruple witching for various expiring financial instruments (options, et al) thus most big players do what they have to do ahead of time in an anticipation of the expiration. Ergo, what it tends to set up is some extra volatility in the 1st half of the day, placid trading in the middle ¼ of the day, and illiquid trading in the last ¼ of the day. Now, of course, things can change, but what won’t likely change is that interest in the tourney will be very high today and tomorrow so be well aware of the aforementioned game plan as to how these two trading days tend to go flow-wise and trade accordingly.

Markets in Asia were lightly mixed overnight with the bourses in Europe up about 1% on average. Gold and oil are both sharply higher (about 5% plus) in the early going with the dollar weaker. Futures are higher with notable strength in selected financials and tech (BAC, ORCL). Look for a slower much more choppy day today with prices on both sides of unchanged as the tug of war over the government’s actions along with those of C dominate the landscape. With that in mind, if C holds well, the ‘choppiness’ will continue to be to the upside. Trade very nimbly…and try to get most of your stuff done in the 1st half of the day due to the slowing pace this afternoon re the tournament.

Watch list:

03192009Eriklist.zip

Reiterating-
Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-



Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

CETV- closed near a high

CRBC, SBIB, FMER, BBX- among the small banks rallying hard on short covering

XL- among the small insurers rallying hard on short covering

MRX- very nice reversal after its poor Tues afternoon drug news; settled with TEVA as well

GES- closed near a high after a major reversal

DRI- up sharply after posting terrific earnings

BXC- closed near high of day

JPM, WFC, PNC, USB, STT, STI, BAC- all closed at or near highs of day I na continued surging banking sector

AFL, ALL, PRU, MET, CB- among the big insurers closing at/near highs of day

ORCL- beat earnings and raised guidance

NEM, GOLD, GG, AEM, - among gold stocks which exploded higher yesterday afternoon

WMI- on “Mad Money” last night

SA- closed near a high

NAK- closed near a high

MPWR- closed near a high

CREE- closed near a high

DFS- good earnings

ROST- good earnings

DRYS- signed a contract to lease one of its ships


Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

C- provided more color on its plans; among other things ,they will be doing a reverse stock split…although stock is mildly positive pre-open

NKE- beat on quarterly earnings, but warned on outlook

CTAS- poor earnings

CLC- terrible earnings

PRGN- bad earnings

FDX- bad earnings and warned



Earnings:

THURS MAR 19 BEFORE

BKS DFS FDX

PLCE ROST WGO

THURS MAR 19 AFTER

PALM TKTM

Good luck today.

Epiphany Trading, LLC

http://www.epiphanytrading.com/

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist
Brendan P. Byrne- President

2 comments:

  1. Joe Biden about reverse stock split (video):
    watch for all!

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thu Mar 19 11:15:49 PDT 2009
    johnb: ah okay, must have missed something
    Thu Mar 19 11:22:54 PDT 2009
    seanl: V tanking
    Thu Mar 19 11:31:59 PDT 2009
    Ron_C: JPM ??
    Thu Mar 19 11:32:21 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: I don't see anything easy JPM...no energy anywhere
    Thu Mar 19 11:32:26 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: tournament environemnt
    Thu Mar 19 11:32:56 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: discussed in blog this mroning...it is why all the energy from an active morning evaportated right around the tip off of LSU-Butler
    Thu Mar 19 11:33:26 PDT 2009
    Ron_C: yes I see what you mean
    Thu Mar 19 11:34:16 PDT 2009
    seanl: reloading bid at 40 V
    Thu Mar 19 11:34:52 PDT 2009
    Ron_C: read the blog this morning/ right on target
    Thu Mar 19 11:35:19 PDT 2009
    seanl: NO doubt. great call Eric, right on
    Thu Mar 19 11:39:48 PDT 2009
    davids: TXT lod needs stag
    Thu Mar 19 11:44:00 PDT 2009
    stevenj: is ROST stag?
    Thu Mar 19 11:44:04 PDT 2009
    gregh: GS new lows
    Thu Mar 19 11:46:04 PDT 2009
    EpiphanyTrader1: JAVA ?
    Thu Mar 19 11:46:13 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: Rob/I were talking about GE right near a low
    Thu Mar 19 11:46:23 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: but needs market (probably)
    Thu Mar 19 11:46:26 PDT 2009
    jlocke: AZ lod
    Thu Mar 19 11:47:07 PDT 2009
    EpiphanyTrader1: thin NAK ?
    Thu Mar 19 11:47:19 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: the same monologue I gave yesterday re JAVA applies today too; only reason it is on list is as a bellwhether for mergers/acquisitions pace. Please do not trade this- it can get halted at any time.
    Thu Mar 19 11:47:53 PDT 2009
    EpiphanyTrader1: thanks
    Thu Mar 19 11:47:54 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: NAk probably works, but I just have no feel for where i can get out if wrong
    Thu Mar 19 11:51:41 PDT 2009
    ssitzer: PRU lod needs stag
    Thu Mar 19 11:58:00 PDT 2009
    gregh: GE 10 with mkt ?
    Thu Mar 19 11:58:14 PDT 2009
    jlocke: POT lod
    Thu Mar 19 11:59:18 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: just don't know if 20 cents easily GE
    Thu Mar 19 11:59:34 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: ask anyone- win or lose- who just day traded GE thru 10.10
    Thu Mar 19 11:59:39 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: here it is though
    Thu Mar 19 11:59:46 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: I am passing lthough it may well work
    Thu Mar 19 12:00:05 PDT 2009
    frankd: breadth on lows ticks made lod vix on highs. pops could be sold barring news
    Thu Mar 19 12:00:48 PDT 2009
    johnb: which means frank?
    Thu Mar 19 12:01:20 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: which means sell into rallies...
    Thu Mar 19 12:01:49 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: I for one however am largely staying away from everything; would have absoltuely been demolished GE for instnace had I just done it
    Thu Mar 19 12:10:59 PDT 2009
    EpiphanyTrader1: AGU ?
    Thu Mar 19 12:11:14 PDT 2009
    bruce: PRU back down
    Thu Mar 19 12:11:28 PDT 2009
    bruce: right thru
    Thu Mar 19 12:11:46 PDT 2009
    bruce: no pun intended huh B
    Thu Mar 19 12:14:50 PDT 2009
    bruce: bwld hod very very very thin
    Thu Mar 19 12:18:21 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: please be careful in here everyone- please. middle of range. everything almost is a scalp. 97% of my volume today was done by 12:30PM.
    Thu Mar 19 12:18:49 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: actually 93%...forgot about the JPM 25.04 trade at a low.
    Thu Mar 19 12:18:53 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: point still the same
    Thu Mar 19 12:21:07 PDT 2009
    wally: aa 1 mil aig 1mil bac 3.5 mil c 3 mil cof 250 thou ge 2.5 mil jpm 2mil ms 600 thou wfc 2 mil all to by
    Thu Mar 19 12:23:31 PDT 2009
    Ron_C: COP ? lod
    Thu Mar 19 12:24:09 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: COP just broke thru; do not know
    Thu Mar 19 12:30:30 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: PRU 1950 with stag
    Thu Mar 19 12:30:54 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: VERY thin so quick out if wrong
    Thu Mar 19 12:32:35 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: nopes
    Thu Mar 19 12:40:53 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: shorted PRU 50 small (1/3 what I'd normally do), out 1/2 44, 1/2 30
    Thu Mar 19 12:40:58 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: still going
    Thu Mar 19 12:45:32 PDT 2009
    gregh: MS 20 is low
    Thu Mar 19 12:45:34 PDT 2009
    gregh: no stag
    Thu Mar 19 12:45:49 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: maybe
    Thu Mar 19 12:47:41 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: made small (4 cents net MS0...should beholding it longer, but cannot chance it
    Thu Mar 19 12:47:48 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: if market bounces at all, it'll be 30
    Thu Mar 19 12:47:51 PDT 2009
    bruce: PRU
    Thu Mar 19 12:47:55 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: if not, it'll be 21
    Thu Mar 19 12:48:05 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: imbalances:
    Thu Mar 19 12:48:09 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: GE buy 2015600
    Thu Mar 19 12:48:11 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: rest are sell:
    Thu Mar 19 12:48:17 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: MET 323300
    Thu Mar 19 12:48:21 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: JPM 1970500
    Thu Mar 19 12:48:25 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: WFC 2769100
    Thu Mar 19 12:48:29 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: PRU 355600
    Thu Mar 19 12:48:34 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: BAC 1928600
    Thu Mar 19 12:48:38 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: C 3485600
    Thu Mar 19 12:48:41 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: BK 770000
    Thu Mar 19 12:48:56 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: PRU too hard for me here, Bruce
    Thu Mar 19 12:49:07 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: probably works anyway
    Thu Mar 19 12:49:14 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: but like in MS, took my money and ran
    Thu Mar 19 12:49:23 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: no chances in this slop
    Thu Mar 19 12:50:40 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: FOR ALL THE TIMES WE (MEANING ME TOO) MOAN AND KVETCH ABOUT MONEY ON THE TABLE, THE REASON I/WE TAKE OUR MONEY IS THTA WE DON'T WANT OT GET TRAPPED IN TRADES LIKE THAT MS
    Thu Mar 19 12:51:06 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: PALM/TKTM only after-hours earnings of consequence
    Thu Mar 19 12:51:10 PDT 2009
    bruce: GOOD POINT ERIC
    Thu Mar 19 12:51:18 PDT 2009
    EpiphanyTrader1: FCX ? fig ?
    Thu Mar 19 12:51:51 PDT 2009
    bruce: but could you expain kvetch for all the gentiles
    Thu Mar 19 12:51:54 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: don't know...looks 'too' good re FCX...I just cnanot do it
    Thu Mar 19 12:52:12 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: that's why.
    Thu Mar 19 12:52:17 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: so hard
    Thu Mar 19 12:54:51 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: GE 1463200 to buy
    Thu Mar 19 12:54:53 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: al lthe rest to sell:
    Thu Mar 19 12:54:57 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: JPM 1511200
    Thu Mar 19 12:55:01 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: WFC 2153000
    Thu Mar 19 12:55:06 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: BAC 1373100
    Thu Mar 19 12:55:11 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: C 3011700
    Thu Mar 19 12:55:13 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: BK 575500
    Thu Mar 19 12:55:40 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: JPM, WFC, PNC, USB, C, STT, STI, COF, MS all at/near lod
    Thu Mar 19 13:00:43 PDT 2009
    whoop: g'night all
    Thu Mar 19 13:01:12 PDT 2009
    EpiphanyTrader1: good night all
    Thu Mar 19 13:07:33 PDT 2009
    bruce: B see my i m
    Thu Mar 19 13:07:51 PDT 2009
    bruce: np
    Thu Mar 19 13:08:05 PDT 2009
    johnb: africa
    Thu Mar 19 13:08:33 PDT 2009
    johnb: r u guys shorting PALM
    Thu Mar 19 13:12:17 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: PALM looknig to uby 767 in time
    Thu Mar 19 13:12:44 PDT 2009
    johnb: thanks Erik
    Thu Mar 19 13:12:56 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: want 760 bid preferably and a relaoding one at that
    Thu Mar 19 13:13:03 PDT 2009
    ekolodny2: I have done no PALM trading
    Thu Mar 19 13:41:56 PDT 2009
    Stephen_B: Erik do you have an E-mail adderss?
    Thu Mar 19 13:41:58 PDT 2009
    frankd: good night guys
    Thu Mar 19 13:42:26 PDT 2009
    BrendanB: Erik@EpiphanyTrading.com
    Thu Mar 19 13:42:33 PDT 2009
    Stephen_B: thanks
    Thu Mar 19 14:12:10 PDT 2009
    bruce: YO B

    ReplyDelete