TUES. FEB. 24 - Admitting Mistakes

I was utterly completely wrong yesterday at the conclusion of the blog piece (or at least, I hope I was simply early). The market had an amazingly decent showing on Friday considering the plethora of bad news out there and it appeared things were going to be Ok- at least ephemerally yesterday morning. There were rumors out there at the government was on the verge of nationalizing 40% of Citicorp (symbol: C). The futures were indicated higher on that news amidst the hypothesis that was a good thing on two scores. First, the implication was that C actually did have some net worth to it else the government would have eaten the whole thing. The other tenet which appeared bullish is that the fever should break in the immediate-term on the hopes that this was the beginning of the end. As much as I hate the thought of socialist policy, there seemed to be this underlying thought process that the one positive of such thinking would be the stabilization of the entire financial system. Indeed, as rumors ebbed and flowed with the day’s trading yesterday, the financial sector moved in direct correlation with the likelihood of a C ‘partial nationalization.’ Yet, the overall broader market told the tale- capitalism as we know it is ending with more and more red ink flowing- and the taxpayer/government footing the bill. For day traders, it make things even more treacherous- we sit there and watch this wide disaster daily, but any whiff of hope causes shorts to get crushed…yet nobody can get long because nothing good seems to be coming down the pipe. And even us hopeful optimists know that trading with a two minute time horizon is so much better than trading with a day horizon…it is better to look verbally foolish than financially foolish- I for one finished decently ahead yesterday monetarily and hope this proves my point: try and make sense of what is going on around you ,but if wrong, admit it, accept it, adjust, and hold things for very short periods of time – particularly if day trading.

Markets throughout the world were lower overnight…down 1.5% to 4% in Asia and about 0.5% to 1% in Europe. Commodity and bond markets are relatively stable. Futures are up state-side on the heels of the JPM news and hope that President Obama will have something noteworthy to say tonight. Following what should be a pretty good open, look for some selling into the strength on the heels of yesterday’s ugly session. After that sell-off, look to the financials…if the banks hold early strength, let’s try again on that call from yesterday- stocks should bounce if for no other reason than people would not be able to look to financials as a leader to the downside. But again, financials will be key with JPM as a primary benchmark.

Watch list:
2242009Eriklist.zip

Reiterating-
Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-


Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern

JWN- decent earnings

JPM- slashed its dividend, but said it’d meet its earnings in being profitable for the quarter

AEM, BP, DVN- mentioned on “Mad Money’ last night

RMBS- after winning a court battle yesterday, the company won another- this time against Hymix

FWLT- good earnings

HD- decent earnings

HNZ- good earnings

MHS- good earnings

MVL- decent earnings

PWR- good earnings

CBRL- good earnings

ONXX- good earnings


Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern

MHK- warned on its earnings

HS- closed near a low

HUM- closed just off a low

OC- closed near a low

CQB- closed near a low

GS- closed near a low

MOS, POT, MON- closed near a low

X, NUE- among the steels closing near a low

TXRH- poor earnings

COG- closed near a low

APA- among the oils closing near a low

CXW- closed near a trend low

PL- closed near a low

JOYG- closed near a low

GTI- poor earnings

LECO- one of the biggest percentage losers of the day…and still closed near a low

RSH- bad earnings

Earnings:

TUES FEB 24 BEFORE

ACOR BBG CRDN

DAKT DPZ DRC

FDP FE FWLT

GTI HD HLS

HNZ HSIC JOE

M MGA MHK

MHS MVL NRF

PCG PWR RSH

TASR TGT UNT

VNO VPHM VRX

WAB

TUES FEB 24 AFTER

CBI CCI CRI

DWA DY ECLP

FSLR FSP HCC

HCN HLF HLX

MELI NBR NCI

ODP RRC SQM

TX WYNN XCO


Good luck today.

www.epiphanytrading.com

Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist of Epiphany Trading, LLC