One of the top questions people ask me is this: “when you look at charts, do you start the intra-day action for technical purposes at the 9:30AM official open or do you include pre and post hours trading on your charts?” The answer is two-fold. First, there old saw about those not learning from history are doomed to repeat history. Therefore, one should always know what a stock did in the pre and post hours. This is because a day trader involved with a volatile stock needs to know the extremes of said stock because those boundaries can always be tested intra-day. For instance, on June 4, Lehman (LEH) opened at 29.70 (down about a point) on the NYSE and soon fell to 28.67 on the NYSE to the shock of many investors and traders who were long the stock. However, what most people did not know is that LEH traded down to 28 in the very early morning (before 8AM). Thus, there was a lot of room there for the stock to move. With that in mind, the second point is this: we tend to use the intra-day charts beginning at 9:30AM simply because this is what most other people do. Therefore, one wants to utilize one’s strategies based upon what most eyeballs are viewing. When one looks up historical data on Yahoo on a stock, only the 9:30AM-4PM information is displayed; it is the same with most trading systems as well. So, the lesson here is this: data-wise, view what everyone else is viewing simply because moves tend to be more powerful when there are more people involved, but be aware of what the stock has done in the immediate past either before and/or after-hours because it can and often does indicate the breadth of the move a stock can make.
Watch list:
2192009Eriklist.zip
Markets were quiet through the world with Asia ostensibly flat and European bourses up a fraction of 1%. Oil is bouncing nicely, up 3% or so. Everything else is quiet. And ‘quiet’ is the word that should be in play unfortunately for day traders today as well. Same theme as yesterday…there is no belief in the government machinations yet sellers seem tired. So, look for a somewhat slow day again…off-hand, it’d seem with futures belted last night that there should be a little sell-off by mid-morning (30-60 Dow points). However, if financials and tech hold despite HPQ’s terrible numbers, the opposite will occur- a short covering bounce of 30-60 Dow points.
Reiterating-
Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specified. If something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
PCLN- terrific earnings
AAP- great earnings
AEM- decent earnings and mentioned on “Mad Money”
WFMI- good earnings
SNPS- good earnings
DBRN- decent earnings
NBL- good earnings
WPI- great earnings
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
IBOC- closed near low
CRA- closed near low after posting bad earnings
RIMM- closed near low; stock has been crushed in recent days
CSE- closed near low
PBT- closed near low
BAC, C- among big banks strongly lower after-hours
BIDU- missed slightly on next quarter outlook
BMRN- terrible earnings
NILE – warned badly
TRN- poor earnings’
LDK- warned on outlook
NTRI- warned on outlook
WMB- bad earnings
Earnings:
THURS FEB 19 BEFORE
AGP APA B
CPA CTL CVS
DSX EXPE GG
GGB GLBL HOS
HRL IDA LTM
NBL NEM PDCO
PDE POOL PQ
RGC RS S
SFY SLW SSP
TTC WMB WPI
XTO
THURS FEB 19 AFTER
ANH BUCY CEC
CECO CENX CQB
CYH HME INTU
JCOM KND MYL
OIS OSIP RIO
RRGB SPN TSO
UNTD WMGI WOOF
WRE
Good luck today.
www.epiphanytrading.com
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist of Epiphany Trading, LLC
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