The worst news of the day yesterday on a very bleak day for the financial markets was something stunningly barely mentioned amidst all the inauguration coverage. Let’s reiterate this: it was the worst possible news that was out there the entire day much less the scariest and worst piece of news this year. This is not opinion. This is fact. I wrote this piece on September 24:
http://www.epiphanytrader.com/blog/2008/09/wed-sep-24-breaking-buck.html
In this piece, I noted that the concept of ‘breaking the buck’ was something that just cannot happen. Imagine if you had money in a brokerage or bank or IRA account, did no trading for the year, and found out that you lost money! In other words, you’d have negative interest meaning it’d be safer and less expensive for you to keep it out of a bank or brokerage house and under your mattress. If this tenet came to pass, the banking system as we know it would end and an economic depression dwarfing what occurred in the 1930’s would take place. In the Sep. 24 piece, I discussed this in a little more detail and in fact, I highlighted State Street (STT) on that day. Well, yesterday, the company missed its earnings. But they also noted that they may have to bring hampered investments from their off-balance sheet deals onto their balance sheet; this in turn would force the company to raise money. This would likely be done via share offerings which would dilute existing shareholders, i.e. cause a decline in the price of the stock. What sparked this was the rise in unrealized losses in STT’s investment portfolio and off-balance-sheet conduits. The conduits are used for issuing short-term debt and are now ostensibly frozen. But it gets worse: STT said it may be exposed to customer claims (i.e. redemptions) relating to unregistered cash collateral pools of liquidity underlying its securities lending program. The company noted it may well recognize a material change to its earnings flow and see its capital ratios hurt if its unrealized losses in its investment securities portfolio were determined to be permanently impaired. Thus, besides ‘impairing’ the company, what is going on is that anybody who redeems from money market funds could be hurt in time. The company noted that it had $113 billion at the end of 2008 in these unregistered cash collateral pools with a weighted average net asset value of 95.5 cents per unit. Yet, the company warned that if these pools are insufficient to support redemptions at $1/ unit, investors “may seek to hold us responsible” for any redemptions above market value. I know this is a long and rather dense piece, but I want everyone to understand: one of the basic ideas of our financial system is the thought that if we place money in a bank or a brokerage house, we expect to get it back. Furthermore, if we are just getting dumb interest because we have no investments in our IRA’s or stock accounts, we expect to not lose money. If people think their money is not safe (which it
may or may not be…that question is not the point of this piece) the entire system is in major major trouble as the withdrawals increase.
Overnight, markets slumped in Asia around 2%. Weakness is prevalent in Europe as well with bourses down about 1% on average with financials leading the way. State-side, futures are higher after a strong earnings report from IBM. The markets seem poised for a bit of a bounce after one of the worst one-day performances for the financial sector ever yesterday. The guide today will, again, be the banks. There should be some selling right into the initial pop this morning…the guide to whether the markets hold will be those aforementioned banks. If things like STT, BK, NTRS, C, and BAC give way, the market is going to have a horrible day today; if the initial strength holds, look for a weak A-B-A2 off of the morning higher in a technical rebound. I am not bright enough to know which of these will happen, but will trade accordingly within the dynamic of one of those two scenearios.
Watch list:
1212009Eriklist.zip
Reiterating-
Please understand that if the ideas do not get to the hoped for set-ups cited below, more often than not, one should not blindly trade the symbol next to said idea.
If the whole story is not there -
If something is good, assume either a short thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 based on direction of the market unless specifiedIf something is bad, assume either a buy thru unchanged or an A-B-A2 (preferably to the downside in a downside market and the upside in an upside market) based on direction of the market unless specified-
Good- The following stocks have good news and/or a strong technical pattern
IBM- great earnings
CREE- good earnings
WGOV- good earnings
RVBD- raised guidance
ELY –maintained guidance
MRO- mentioned on “Mad Money” last night
ADTN- beat earnings slightly
UTX- beat earnings slightly
Bad-The following stocks have bad news and/or a weak technical pattern
BK- missed on earnings slightly
AD- warned on earnings
STT- bludgeoned yesterday; detail described in today’s blog post
GS/MS- among other brokers, finished near lows
BABY- closed on low after warnings on earnings on Tuesday morning
HIG- closed on low
STI, BAC, PNC, C, WFC, JPM, USB, NTRS- among huge banks which got crushed yesterday with all closing near lows
MFC, KIM- among smaller financial entities closing near low of day
AFL, MET, PRU- insurers demolished as well in breaking to multi-week lows
SNV, ZION, LNC, CTBK, HCBK, GBCI, HBAN, RF, CINF, PBKS, ASBC- among the smaller banks closing at or near their lows yesterday
OMCL- warned on earnings
AGO – closed on low
AMSC- warned on earnings
WY- closed near low
CP- among railroads closing near lows
JBHT- on verge of breaking trend low through 20
BCS, AIB, RBS, LYG- among foreign banks decimated more than 50% each yesterday
APD- lowered guidance
BLK- missed earnings estimates badly
COH- in-line earnings, but not providing guidance
Earnings:
WED JAN 21 BEFORE
ABT ADTN AMR
APD ATI BLK
BPOP COH HCBK
LAB MMR NTRS
PGR UAUA USB
UTX
WED JAN 21 AFTER
AAPL BNI CNH
DOX EBAY FFIV
HXL KMP NE
NVE PLCM RJF
SLM STX
Good luck today.
http://www.epiphanytrading.com/
Erik R. Kolodny- Chief Markets Strategist of Epiphany Trading, LLC
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